On January 20, local time, Biden was formally sworn in as the 46th President of the United States at the Capitol in the capital Washington. At present, the formation of the White House team has basically been completed, the new cabinet’s ideas for governance have gradually become clearer, and its China policy has gradually become clear.

Overall, Biden’s new administration may be against the Trump government’s naked trade bullying and The decoupling and suppression of the supply chain may be eased, but it is only a slow strategy. If the United States seeks to make more concessions to the EU, Japan, and Australia instead of China, it seeks a wide range of supply chain alliances and implements a policy of siege and containment of the Chinese supply chain.

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One , Several key remarks from Biden’s team concerning China

Some time before taking office, Biden and his nominated main cabinet officials successively expressed their attitudes towards China in the media and nomination confirmation hearings. View. Palm Chain has done the following sorting out:

(1) Biden’s views on China-related issues:Rebuilding the U.S. supply chain plan

July 2020, as the Democratic Party The presidential candidate Joe Biden’s campaign team posted on Biden’s official campaign website, announcing a plan to rebuild the US supply chain, declaring to ensure The United States will not face the problem of shortage of key materials during the crisis, and will protect its national security in this way.

The measures taken include:making full use of the power of the federal government to rebuild the manufacturing capacity of the U.S. domestic supply chain of critical materials; taking comprehensive measures to ensure that the United States has the critical materials needed to deal with future crises and national security; Work with allies to protect their supply chains and open new markets for U.S. exports.

Biden has encouraged American companies to move key supply chains from China to China. Biden once referred to China as a”special challenge” and delivered a speech on December 28, 2020, calling for a stronger alliance in trade and economy to deal with China’s challenges.

Biden said:“When we compete with China and pursue the Chinese government’s trade, technology, human rights, and other violations, when we build alliances of like-minded partners and allies (ed. Note:In 2020, the Japan-India-Australia Supply Chain Alliance led by Japan will become Biden’s option?), our position will be firmer.”

(2) Biden’s team involved in China Remarks:One after another expressed their toughness against China

(1) New Secretary of State Blincoln:The two parties united to deal with China

US local time 1 On the 19th, Anthony Brinken, who will be the US Secretary of State, told the Wall Street Journal that although he did not agree with the Trump administration’s specific measures against China, there was nothing wrong with taking a hard line against China. He also called on the two parties in the United States to unite and unanimously respond to the”Chinese challenge.”

(2) New Minister of Finance Yellen:Sanctions are still an important tool

According to the new media of the Beijing Evening News, Biden’s nominee for the Minister of Finance, Yellen, said that he is ready to use a “full set of methods” to “fix” China’s economic behavior, including China’s major investment in the United States.

Yellen said that China is clearly the most important strategic competitor of the United States. The United States is ready to direct its economic struggle against China in terms of”dumping products, setting up trade barriers, and providing illegal subsidies to enterprises.”

(3) New Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin:China is the main threat to the United States

The candidate for Secretary of Defense Austin said that the Indo-Pacific region must be national defense China is the main threat of the United States. Austin said that although the United States still maintains an advantage over China, the gap between the two countries has narrowed.”Our goal will be to ensure that we can expand this gap in the future.” The United States must constitute a”credible deterrent” against China.

(4) New National Intelligence Director Avril Lavigne:Intelligence on China is a priority

“The United States’ attitude towards China must continue to change and must actively respond to China Challenges. China poses a challenge to our security, prosperity, and values ​​on a list of issues. I do support a strong stance (against China).” Avril Haynes said that both parties in the United States are emphasizing Chinese intelligence. Threatening and extremely important.

Under this pressure, she plans to devote more energy to intelligence work related to China, and regards this as a priority of the Intelligence Bureau and devotes more resources to this.

II. Trump’s decoupling of China’s supply chain and supply chain containment

(1) The China Supply Chain Policy in the Trump Period

During the four years of Trump’s administration, the United States has been trying to compete with”national security” and”industrial security”. China’s supply chain”decoupling”, its strategic goal is to”retrace” the supply chain to the United States.

In 2020 alone, Trump has repeatedly issued”decoupling” remarks and signed relevant policies. In June 2020, Trump bluntly stated that”we can cut off the entire relationship with China.” On Twitter,”the US and China’s “complete decoupling” is still a policy option.”

In August 2020, Trump signed an executive order requiring the federal government to purchase certain essential medicines made in the United States to get rid of dependence on the Chinese supply chain.

In September of the same year, Trump used the”China Threat” as an excuse to sign the”Executive Order for Resolving the Threats to Domestic Supply Chains posed by Dependence on Key Foreign Minerals”

The Trump Administration The”China-US supply chain decoupling route” is manifested on the one hand in requiring high-end manufacturing, including American companies in China, to withdraw from the United States. On the other hand, sanctions suppress Chinese enterprises and institutions and cut off the supply of key technology components to China.

During Trump’s administration, the “decoupling” of key areas has become, to a considerable extent, the “consensus” of the US and its allies on China’s supply chain policy.

(2) Supply chain containment:blacklisting and sanctioning companies

The Trump administration’s blockade of advanced Chinese companies and the strikes on the supply chain have almost taken over All leading technology companies in China. The palm chain is organized as follows:

1. Blacklist of U.S. sanctions against China companies

getUrls?link=5472d299de3a4246617da6a31a003af3 - Trump is gone, leaving cracks in the China-US supply chain! Biden is here, continue to tear the Sino-US supply chain? Will the Trump Administration continue to decouple and suppress China's supply chain?

(Handchain statistics)

2. List of military-related companies sanctioned by the United States against China

getUrls?link=028fdd86759466ec1dcdbdc70296256b - Trump is gone, leaving cracks in the China-US supply chain! Biden is here, continue to tear the Sino-US supply chain? Will the Trump Administration continue to decouple and suppress China's supply chain?

(palm chain statistics)

3. US China Supply Chain Containment Department

(1) U.S. Department of Commerce and leadership

US Secretary of Commerce:Wilbur Rose:Ross and Trump have a very personal relationship. Trump has publicly praised Rose as a”tough and sincere” talented negotiator.

According to media reports, Rose is Trump’s long-term partner and one of the core economic advisers during his campaign, helping Trump on issues such as corporate tax rate reform, expansion of infrastructure investment, and trade policies. Make suggestions.

At the beginning of 2020, it was declared that China’s new coronavirus may harm China’s economy and help jobs and manufacturing return to the United States.

(2) U.S. Treasury Department and Leaders

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin:Steven Mnuchin is an old friend of Trump and served as Trump’s chief financial officer during the campaign.

As the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, Mnuchin, although he strongly endorsed Trump’s economic sanctions against China, he was one of the few steady factions in the”radical cabinet” formed by Trump. Mnuchin hopes to suppress China by adopting a safe method that will not affect itself.

The announcement to list China as a”currency manipulator” is also considered to be due to Trump’s pressure.

3. Biden’s China supply chain containment and encirclement

(1) Supply chain containment

U.S.”Foreign Policy” predicts that under Biden’s leadership, Trump’s previous hardline line towards China may continue, but his attitude may be slightly eased and some bilateral coordination will be increased.

Biden will take over the trade war initiated by Trump against China during his tenure.

In an interview with the”New York Times in December 2020, Biden stated that he would not immediately take Any measures to eliminate tariffs.

On the 19th local time, Biden’s nominee for the Minister of Finance, Janet Yellen (Janet Yellen), said that he was prepared to use a “full set of methods” to “fix” China’s economic behavior, including China’s major impact on the United States. investment.

However, instead of the Trump administration’s unilateral tariffs on China, Yellen suggested that the United States can seek cooperation with allies to jointly resolve China-related issues. At the same time, sanctions will remain an important tool of the US Treasury Department.

(2) Supply chain siege

From Biden’s inauguration speech and his team’s comments on China, the United States will rejoin or form an international organization , And actively unite with allies to establish a stronger supply chain alliance in trade and economy to”contain” China.

(1) CPTPP in the Asia-Pacific region:The predecessor of CPTPP is the”Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” (TPP),  Obama During the period, one of the goals of the United States to promote TPP was to formulate high-standard international economic and trade rules to exclude China from the mainstream Asia-Pacific trade circle.

Before this election, some American scholars believed that after Biden was elected president, he might seek to re-join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in some new form.

(2) Signing an agreement with Europe:On December 30, 2020, after the EU and China reached a trade agreement, Biden expressed concern about the good relations between the EU and China. The Biden team is urging the EU to The United States conducts trade negotiations.

Previously, the EU product tariff increase negotiations and the Trump administration’s negotiations have reached a deadlock, and they are looking forward to Biden’s resolving. After four years of Trump’s tenure, Biden will, to some extent, easily improve relations with Europe.

(3) G7 moves towards G11:In June 2020, Trump stated that he plans to invite Russia, South Korea, Australia and India to participate in the G7 summit, which he called”G11″.

Expanding G7, forming an alliance against China, American abacus passersby know. However, it remains to be seen whether the new Biden administration will continue Trump’s idea.

Four. Allies surrounded by the US supply chain

(1) Ally Japan’s supply chain:decoupling policy to China

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After the outbreak, the Abe government launched the”Supply Chain Reform” project. Its decoupling policy toward China is divided into:”Domestic investment promotion subsidies for supply chain countermeasures” and”Overseas supply Support businesses such as chain diversification.

The former indicates that for the weak sector of the Japanese supply chain, subsidies are provided to companies that implement production in Japan and build production bases; the latter refers to strengthening the supply chain in Asia through diversification of production lines and strengthening Japan A company that has an economic and industrial cooperation relationship with ASEAN.

(2) The”quasi-ally” Indian supply chain:Go to China supply chain policy

May 2020, The Modi government has launched a large-scale economic stimulus plan, proposing to review its legal system such as land, employment and taxation, focusing on the revitalization of”Made in India”, and build a new domestic Supply chain and market.

India, on the one hand, is increasing the pace of”de-sinicization” in the economic field, and on the other hand, it actively seeks international cooperation to cater to the U.S.”decoupling” policy towards China and declares that it will allocate a large area of ​​land to undertake projects transferred from China.

(3) Ally Germany’s supply chain:putting pressure on China’s supply chain

Germany has made EU-China relations a focus of Germany and the EU’s foreign policy. First, resolve a series of issues that Germany and the EU have discussed with China for a long time, including putting pressure on China in the negotiation of an investment agreement, so that China can further relax market access and promise more obligations on climate change and environmental protection.

Secondly, through coordinating policies toward Africa, we will promote trilateral cooperation between Europe and China and Africa and create conditions for economic recovery in Germany and Europe after the epidemic.

Finally, step up the pace and change strategies to diversify their own enterprises, reduce cooperation with China, and occupy as much of the Asia-Pacific market as possible.

5. China’s supply chain policy and possible countermeasures

(1) China’s supply chain policy

getUrls?link=60c6a3d1e17a5bd2828deb97eb19aaea - Trump is gone, leaving cracks in the China-US supply chain! Biden is here, continue to tear the Sino-US supply chain? Will the Trump Administration continue to decouple and suppress China's supply chain?

(Chinese government website of palm chain statistics)

( 2) Countermeasures against the US supply chain options

(1) Countermeasures against the US rare earth supply chain

China controls the world with its abundant reserves For about 90%of the rare earth market, the United States relies on Chinese imports. Recently, the relevant Chinese authorities released data on China’s rare earth export volume in 2020, which showed a plunge of about 23%year-on-year, and the export volume fell to 35448 tons.

In this regard, the US media quickly smelled the”dangerous atmosphere”, believing that China has turned rare earths into weapons to counter US sanctions against China, and therefore strongly urge the US government to take measures to gradually get rid of China’s rare earths. Dependence.

(2) Strike the American supply chain hawks

In recent years, Australia has acted as a frontrunner of the American anti-China horse, linking Japan and India to build a”supply chain alliance” to counter China , Causing it to lose the Chinese market, this blow is unprecedented. According to Australian media reports, Australia has lost more than 500 billion yuan since the trade friction between China and Australia.

On the issue of the supply chain to China, the United Kingdom and Canada have followed the United States. After the United Kingdom has completely banned Huawei, it has recently introduced new regulations for domestic companies to try to prevent products related to China’s Xinjiang region from entering its supply chain. .

In addition, there is also the Tsai Ing-wen government in Taiwan, China. Its so-called”all-round investment in supply chain reorganization” advocates that Taiwanese businessmen should leave the Chinese mainland and switch to a US-centric supply chain.

For the above-mentioned major”anti-China supply chain alliances” countries and regions, China will definitely seize their weakness and fight back resolutely and forcefully.

(3) The supply chain breakthrough of Chinese companies

The suppression of China’s supply chain is actually the United States’ comprehensive containment strategy against the rising China in recent years In part, the ban and suppression of the United States has forced Chinese companies to embark on the path of independent innovation.

For example, Huawei builds the entire industry chain, researches key products on its own, and improves the supply chain’s independent security level to avoid getting stuck and affecting product sales; some companies, such as Alibaba, expand the scope of the supply chain and make it bigger Strengthen one supply chain to avoid the situation that affects the entire industry;

Some companies, such as Baowu Iron and Steel, are expanding and strengthening themselves while building financial services for the steel industry supply chain, combining blockchain technology with The integration of the physical industry has driven the growth of the entire industry, has an advantageous position in international iron ore negotiations, and has achieved cross-border settlement of iron ore transactions in RMB with the world’s three major iron ore suppliers.

(Zhanglian New Media Center)