The year 2020 has just bid farewell, and the real estate company’s annual report card has been released. According to the monitoring of the Zhongzhi Research Institute, a total of 166 real estate companies have entered the tens of billions army, and the 100 billion army has increased to 41.
From the ranking of TOP100 housing companies, Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke still dominates the top three, with annual sales of 788.8 billion yuan, 703.8 billion yuan, and 701.1 billion yuan. Sunac and Poly are ranked fourth and fifth respectively, with sales of more than 500 billion yuan, and the leading real estate company is still”the strong and the strong.” China Shipping, Greenland, Shimao, China Resources and Greentown ranked 6th-10th respectively.
Top 20 real estate sales in 2020
Higher growth rate of waist housing companies,Yangtze River Delta has the largest contribution
Data shows that the average sales growth rate of tens of billions of real estate enterprises is 14.4%. Due to the slowdown, the industry has entered a slowdown and stable channel with obvious characteristics. Among them, the top enterprises with more than 300 billion yuan developed steadily, with an average sales growth rate of 6.9%. 100-300 billion enterprises, 50-100 billion, 30-50 billion waist enterprises continue to pursue scale expansion, with a rapid growth rate, and the average sales growth rates are 19.7%, 16.2%, and 15.2%, respectively. However, the growth rate of 10-30 billion companies is low, with an average sales growth rate of 6.2%.
Analyzed by the Zhongzhi Research Institute, the distribution of the growth rate of tens of billions of enterprises shows an”inverted U shape”, with lower growth rates for head and tail enterprises, and higher growth rates for waist enterprises.
In terms of the degree of achievement of real estate companies, from the 25 representative companies that announced their annual sales targets, the overall sales target completion rate of real estate companies in 2020 is relatively good, with an average of 106.1%. Among them, the sales target completion rate of Jin Mao, Greentown, China Resources, China Merchants, Agile and other companies all exceeded 110%.
Which cities will sell better houses in 2020? According to data from the Zhongzhi Institute, the proportion of transactions in first- and second-tier cities has increased slightly, and that in second-tier cities accounts for nearly 60%.
In 2020, tens of billions of real estate companies will continue to focus on second-tier cities, and the contribution of 50 tens of billions of representative companies in second-tier cities accounted for 58.3%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from 2019. Improvements in the supply side of first-tier cities pushed up market transactions, with sales accounting for an increase of 0.3 percentage points to 18.6%. The contribution from third- and fourth-tier cities decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 23.1%.
Specifically, the three major urban agglomerations, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei three billion real estate companies, have made outstanding sales contributions, accounting for 36.7%, 15.1%, and 10.5%respectively, and a total of 62.3%, And the proportion of sales continues to increase.
Red Star Capital Bureau noted that the biggest winner among the city clusters is undoubtedly the Yangtze River Delta city cluster. The demand in the region was strong, and the market was the first to recover. The proportion of sales increased by 1.9%to 36.7%. From the data point of view, Nanjing has quietly surpassed key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou to become the city with the highest new house sales in 2020. The Pearl River Delta benefited from factors such as the regional top-level design and the relaxation of talent policies. The market became hot in the second half of the year, and sales accounted for 0.9%increase; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities The group market has recovered steadily, and sales accounted for a slight increase.
The real estate industry will enter the”no-growth era”?
In 2020, real estate companies handed in a beautiful report card. 166 real estate companies have entered the tens of billions legion, and as many as 41 real estate companies have crossed the”100 billion mark.” However, in the triumph of tens of billions and hundreds of billions of real estate enterprises, the CEO of E-House Enterprise Group Ding Zuyu said astonishingly:”In 2021, real estate The industry may enter an era of no growth!” Ding Zuyu said this in his annual property market speech yesterday afternoon, and it quickly sparked heated discussions from all parties. He said that with the implementation of the”three red lines”, housing non-speculation has become a long-term mechanism, and industry growth has entered a bottleneck stage.
Ding Zuyu said that the real estate industry will enter the”no growth era”
In August 2020, the central bank and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will delineate the”three red lines” of financing for housing companies:excluding advance receipts The subsequent debt ratio shall not exceed 70%, the net debt ratio shall not exceed 100%, and the cash short-term debt ratio shall not be less than 1 time. The introduction of the”three red lines” has caused real estate companies to suddenly face financing constraints and rising financing costs. This has become the key to testing various real estate companies. Real estate companies have also set off a round of collective reduction in debt and leverage.
With the introduction of the”three red lines” and the tightening of policies in many cities, many real estate companies have adopted a cautious attitude. Judging from the performance of various echelon housing companies, in 2020, one after another”steps on the brakes.” According to the data, only China Jinmao, Greentown China of the real estate enterprises with more than 200 billion yuan in sales performance exceeded 40%, 44%and 44%respectively. 43%, the performance of the camp housing companies increased by 17%. In the long run, the general trend of performance deceleration will not change.
According to statistics from E-House, after the introduction of the new”three red lines” financing regulations, the amount of land acquired by the top 100 real estate companies from September to November is as high as that of the previous 8 months. 44%; however, the investment amount of the red, orange and yellow housing companies fell 41%, 61%and 18%year-on-year respectively. Among them, real estate companies such as Greenland have dropped significantly in their investment after September.
Data shows that as of November this year, 7 of the 45 typical real estate companies have experienced negative growth, and 11 of them are growing at a rate lower than the industry average. Ding Zuyu believes that the negative growth of large-scale real estate enterprises will increase in 2021. But he also said that the industry judged it as”no growth”, but individual companies will have negative growth and positive growth, and each sector within the company will have negative growth and positive growth.
The Shell Research Institute’s report also believes that the current policy of regulating the “limited land price” and “restricted housing price” in cities, as well as the high competitiveness of core cities, will continue to push up the cost of real estate enterprises. The profit high of the real estate industry has long since passed, and the gross profit rate has fallen the most among the major industries. It is expected that there will still be some downside in the future. The 70 listed real estate companies in the TOP100 have an average gross profit margin of 29.4%in 2020, which is 5.1 percentage points lower than the same period in 2019. Some real estate companies”increased revenue but not profit”, and the decline in profitability has become a mainstream trend.
The reason is that some real estate companies choose the”price-for-volume” promotion method, which directly leads to the loss of profit; the increase in the cost of another part of stable real estate companies has become the main cause of the decline in their profit level. According to statistics from the Shell Research Institute, the average land prices of major cities across the country increased by 2.1%and 1.6%in the first half and the third quarter of 2020, respectively, and the average residential land prices increased by 3.1%and 2.8%in the first half and the third quarter respectively.
Where will the real estate market go this year?
Looking forward to the future, China Finger Research Institute analyzed that in 2021, as the first year of the”14th Five-Year Plan”, uncertain factors in the international environment will increase significantly, and epidemic prevention and control will be normalized. With the continuous recovery of production and operation, the downward pressure on the domestic macro economy remains unabated. As the real estate industry is the ballast stone of the economy, the overall tone of the regulation of”housing to live without speculation” will not change, financial supervision will continue to standardize the development of the industry, and stable and healthy development will be the main tone.
In the prediction of market development, Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of the Shell Research Institute, believes that the real estate market in 2021 will show the following three characteristics:”large and stable, regional differentiation, and deepening of the stock.” When the overall market scale stands at a high level of more than 22 trillion yuan, it will become a large and stable market; and the differentiation between cities in different regions and within cities will continue to intensify; as the proportion of second-hand housing may usher in With a substantial increase, the trend of quantitative development of market deposits will also deepen.
The Shell Research Institute also has an outlook on the major regional markets in 2021. The Yangtze River Delta region:In 2020, the urban land market in the Yangtze River Delta region will be hotter, and the average land transaction price will increase significantly year-on-year. It is expected that high-priced land projects will enter the market in 2021, which will drive market expectations upward. The urban agglomeration has a high degree of regional synergy, and the housing inventory de-dissolution cycle is not high. The market performance in 2021 will continue to be better than other regions. It is expected that the price increase in key cities will continue to be high.
Pearl River Delta Region:The market will cool down, but Guangzhou will warm up moderately. The Pearl River Delta has a bright performance in 2020, mainly Shenzhen and Dongguan, but the two cities are strictly regulated. It is expected that there will be further regulatory policies in the later period, and market demand will cool down. Guangzhou’s housing prices have been relatively stable in the past two years. With the support of population growth, the volume of market transactions is expected to further expand in 2021; the supply of residential land in Guangzhou will double year-on-year in 2020. It is expected that new houses will enter the market in 2021, and the tension between supply and demand will not be under pressure. The price is expected to maintain a moderate increase within 5%.
Bohai Sea Rim:The core city of Beijing continues to be moderate and positive. After the”317 New Deal” regulation, it has fallen for three years. With the consumption of restricted-competition housing inventory and the gradual introduction of non-price-restricted products, the market is expected to improve and prices will rise. The inventory of new and second-hand houses in the Bohai Rim region is generally high, and the sale cycle is long. Affected by the long-term economic and demographic fundamentals of the city is not strong, market expectations and demand are still not strong, and the optimism has turned from falling to flat.
Major cities in the west:there will be differentiation in 2021. Among them, after Chengdu’s regulation and control in the third quarter of 2020 are increased, it is expected that demand will shrink in 2021, but the impact will be small and the growth rate will be narrowed. In Chongqing, inventory sales are in a relatively normal range, and it is expected that the market will continue to remain stable. Xi’an has a strong inhibitory effect on demand, especially for high-end improvement due to the overweight regulation at the end of 2020. At the same time, the supply of residential land will increase substantially in 2020. It is expected that in 2021, the market demand will be greatly eased, and prices will fall.
Red Star News Correspondent Li Weiming
Editor Bai Zhaopeng
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