A week of crude oil review
This week, international oil prices have fluctuated and increased, and the overall weekly increase has been around 2%. The market is optimistic about demand growth expectations and OPEC+ maintains its supply policy and pushes up international oil prices. The United StatesUnemployment rate fell, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecast, OPEC kept its demand growth forecast this year unchanged, etc.Fair news continues to boost the market and offset the negative impact. The U.S. lifted sanctions on certain individuals and entities in Iran and other unfavorable factors to limit oil price increases. As of June 10, within the week WTI rose 1.48 to 70.29 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.15%; Brent rose 1.21 to 72.52 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.70%.
PP ABS PE PVC and other general plastics market analysis and outlook forecast
PP-sluggish, difficult to vibrate and continue weak
This week, the domestic PP market continued to fall. drawing material weekThe decrease is 100-500 yuan/ton, South China declined even more, and other types of products fell 50-600 yuan/ton each week,Among them, the Maoming Petrochemical HT9025NX Guangzhou area has a weekly decline of 600 yuan/ton.
During the week, the raw material propylene fell Channel, the cost side support is insufficient. The downstream plastic knitting industries are in the off-season, the orders from manufacturers are not good, and the demand for raw materials is generally weakened. During the busy agricultural season, some areas in South China implemented power curtailment policies, and some downstream manufacturers stopped or reduced their load to produce. The overall operating rateGo lower. In addition, the recent epidemic in Guangdong has worsened in parts of the province, and logistics and transportation have been restricted. In addition, the recent renminbi exchange rate has fallen, the PP export business has been under pressure and the plans for the commissioning of multiple sets of new devices are approaching. The output of the previous production devices has been stable, and the market supply pressure has increased. On the whole, the market supply and demand structure is weak, and sluggish demand has become the main factor affecting the market downturn. The decline in southern China is even more pronounced.
Upstream raw materials
Acrylic:Shandong propylene market went up after going down this week. Several propylene plants restarted during the week, and the market supply increased significantly. The downstream PP powder market is weak, the overall operating rate remains low, and the demand for raw materials is not high. In addition, a butyl octanol plant in Shandong Jianlan was temporarily shut down during the week, which is bad for demand. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue has increased, and downstream manufacturers just need to replenish goods. Most propylene manufacturers have slowed their shipments and lowered their offers to promote transactions. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market is weak, and the positives are insufficient. The market price is weakening downward. As of June 3, the market price of propylene in Shandong has risen to 7875 yuan/ton.
Shandong propylene market price is expected to fall within a narrow range next week.
Cost surface:The recent trend of thermal coal is relatively strong, coal-based PPProfit /span> Upside down, there is a certain degree of support for the market, the raw material propylene is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. Overall, the cost benefit is limited.
Supply side:On June 10, Fushun Petrochemical’s old plant (90,000 tons/year) restarted. Next week, the Ningbo Formosa Plastics second-line plant (280,000 tons/year) is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on June 15, and the maintenance loss will be small. increase. In terms of new devices, the recent plans for Jinneng Technology’s PP installations and Liaoyang Petrochemical’s PP installations to be put into trial operation will be added in China from June to July. Productivity increased pressure. As of June 11, the inventory data of the two oils was around 690,000 tons, and the inventory pressure was controllable.
Demand side:The downstream industry is in the off-season, the busy farming season, manufacturers have holidays, local power rationing, epidemic factors, and the impact of macro policy adjustments and other factors, it is difficult for market demand to improve significantly in the short term. In general, the market is mainly negative , It is expected that the domestic PP market will decline next week. As coal-based PP’s current profit is upside down, the decline may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the offers of major petrochemical companies and downstream follow-up.
ABS-bargain hunting and weak shocks
This week, the domestic ABS market was weak and volatile, with more declines and less rises. Some brands were weeklyIncrease and decrease100-300 yuan/ton,Yuyao market of Ningbo LG Yongxing HI-121H brand dropped 300 yuan/ton, Close 18,000 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of the week, the market continued its weakness last week, raw materialsstyrene The high level fell, the shipment indicators of traders were basically completed, the downstream buyers bought on dips, some merchants lowered their offers, and the market fell slightly. At the beginning of June, Jilin Petrochemical and Ningbo Taihua are about to be overhauled, and the supply of related brands is tight. South China took the opportunity to push up prices. East China is relatively stable, traders are actively shipping, Sinopec lowers the ex-factory price, downstream appliances In the off-season in June, demand was insufficient, and merchants continued to cut prices, attracting low-price stocks from downstream, and market transactions were good.
Upstream raw materials
①Styrene:This week, the domestic styrene market fell broadly, with a weekly drop of 425 yuan/ton. Last Friday, the prices of pure benzene and ethylene fell, and the futures market fell sharply. The focus of merchants’ offers was lowered, and the spot price fell 250 yuan/ton daily. At the beginning of the week, the terminal inventory was low, North China had equipment parking, and the spot market offered strong, and then East China arrived at the port The increase in the number of terminals, the small accumulation of warehouses, the restart of styrene maintenance equipment and the launch of new equipment capacity on the market, the downstream wait and see, etc. fell, the transaction was not good, and the merchants reduced prices for shipments. The trend of crude oil continued to rise, which restrained the decline to a certain extent. However, the downstream ABS/PS struggled to rise, which resisted the high price, the supply was too large, and the market declined.
It is expected that the short-term styrene market will continue to decline, and the weekly decline will be within 400 yuan.
②Acrylonitrile:The domestic acrylonitrile market continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 400 yuan/ton. As of June 3, Shandong Qilu Petrochemical’s East China market price was 14,700 yuan/ton, and the East China port arrived at 14,500 yuan/ton. The market fundamentals is good, the factory inventory is low, the offer is quite high, the external inventory is tight and the price is high, the merchant reported The market pushes up, and the price of the goods is higher; however, the downstream acrylic fiber industry takes on demand, and the transaction is average. There is a strong bullish atmosphere inside,
The short-term acrylonitrile market is expected to be strong.
③Butadiene:The domestic butadiene market stabilized after a slight increase this week. The prices of overseas sources continued to rise, and the export arbitrage window supported domestic prices. At the same time, a set of equipment of Shanghai Petrochemical was restarted and postponed , The good news stimulated manufacturers to push up prices. Downstream catches up cautiously, with sporadic high-priced transactions, the main downstream rubber market has fallen, related companies have insufficient purchasing enthusiasm, demand is difficult to boost, merchants have poor shipments, and the market is weak and stable.Consolidation. The domestic demand for raw materials is limited, and the external price supports the market.
It is expected that the downstream domestic butadiene market will be deadlocked at a high level.
Supply side:Next week, Jilin Petrochemical will be overhauled, and Ningbo Taihua will be overhauled in the second half of the month. The supply of the two sources is tight, and the remaining manufacturers are profitable and are running at full capacity. The social inventory will be less than 190,000 tons, and the supply will decrease.
Demand side:Downstream terminal home appliances are in the off-season in June, and the demand for purchasing raw materials weakens. At the same time, the high price of raw materials suppresses demand. Just need to stock up and look for deals at low prices.
Cost end:The prices of raw materials continue to rise, butadiene and acrylonitrile are trending well. Although styrene has fallen slightly, the overall cost market is stable.
It is expected that the ABS market will continue to decline next week, but the decline will be narrowed. It is recommended to pay close attention to the market raw material prices and downstream purchases.
PE-general decline across the board
This week, the domestic PE market fell across the board, generally falling, and some brands fell 50-400 yuan/ton each week, of which High pressure and MetallocenePE fell sharply. As of June 10, linear 7042 The mainstream price of grades in East China is around 7800 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of HDPE5000S in South China is 8900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of high-pressure material 2426H in East China is 9600 yuan/ton.
This week’s overall market still hasn’t improved. The raw material ethylene trade price has fallen sharply, cost support has dropped sharply, linear futures have dropped to a low level, and oscillating operation. Sinopec, PetroChina and other manufacturers continue Ex-factory prices were lowered, traders followed the market, and prices continued to fall. The overall downstream operating rate this week was 51.2%, and the month-on-month increased by 1.2 percentage points, packaging film Demand has picked up. The operating rate of PE production enterprises was 88.0%, a decrease of 0.1%from the previous month. The weekly output was 440,400 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous month.
Upstream raw materials
Ethylene:The ethylene trade price continued its downward trend this week, and the decline expanded, down by 50-65 US dollars/ton from last week. CFR Northeast Asia is US$960/ton, CFRSoutheast Asia is 920 yuan/ton. Although crude oil futures rose volatility this week, which is good for cost support, the downstream PE market is weak and continues to decline, and the demand for raw materials is insufficient. At the same time, the global ethylene supply is not decreasing, the supply is under pressure, and the trade price has dropped. The domestic Luxi Chemical ethylene ex-factory price The same goes down. The PE market has not improved next week, and the supply remains unchanged. Crude oil fluctuates at a high level, which is more bearish than good.
The short-term ethylene market is expected to be weak and volatile.
Cost surface:The original ethylene trade price still has room to fall. Domestic Luxi Chemicals lowered the ex-factory price of ethylene, and the cost support weakened.
Supply side:Next week, Haiguolong Oil’s linear device will be put into production. The production companies have less maintenance and the operating rate is about 88%. The two oil inventories are expected to continue to accumulate, and the manufacturers’ shipment pressure will increase.
Demand side:Downstream packaging film, injection, agricultural film category is expected to increase operating rate, willingness to get goods Enhance, stock up on dips.
It is expected that the PE market will be weaker next week. /Ton, it is recommended to focus on the downstream dynamics.
PVC-raw materials go down and prices generally go down
This week, the domestic PVC market first fell and then rose, and the overall price fell within a narrow range. Among the Shanghai area Tianjin Dagu S- The 1000 brand fell 250 yuan/ton weekly, with a weekly decline of 2.59%.
Raw materials, raw materials this weekCalcium carbide A slight rebound is good for the cost of calcium carbide process PVC; the ethylene trade price has fallen sharply, which is bad for the cost of ethylene process PVC. On the supply side, the operating rate of the PVC industry this week has increased compared with last week, the market supply has increased, and corporate inventories have increased; coupled with the impact of the epidemic, my country’s PVC exports are under pressure, and some are transferred to domestic sales, which is bad for the PVC spot market. Manufacturers were bearish on the market outlook and lowered their quotations one after another and actively shipped products; traders followed the market to make profitable shipments. However, the downstream companies are conflicting with high prices. This week, PVC downstream products companies have little change in their start-ups. Only a few companies have a slight decline. The downstream demand purchases are limited. Trading is normal.
Upstream raw materials
①Ethylene:The ethylene trade price continued its downward trend this week, and the decline expanded, with a decrease of $50-65/ton from last week. CFR Northeast Asia is US$960/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia is 920 yuan/ton. Although crude oil futures rose volatility this week, which is good for cost support, the downstream PE market is weak and continues to decline, and the demand for raw materials is insufficient. At the same time, the global ethylene supply is not decreasing, the supply is under pressure, and the trade price has dropped. The domestic Luxi Chemical ethylene ex-factory price The same goes down. Next week, the PE market has not improved, the supply remains the same, and the crude oil fluctuates at a high level, which is more bearish than good.
The short-term ethylene market is expected to be weak and volatile.
②Calcium:The market price of raw calcium carbide rebounded slightly this week. As of June 10, the main ex-factory price in Wuhai At 4300 yuan/ton. The raw material blue charcoal has a narrow rise in the market, which is good for the cost of calcium carbide. Affected by the”dual control” policy in Inner Mongolia, the supply of calcium carbide in the market is tight, supporting the calcium carbide spot market; market shipments are smooth, and quotations have risen slightly due to tight supply. The downstream PVC centralized maintenance is over, the demand for calcium carbide increases, the downstream actively purchases, and the transaction is acceptable.
The calcium carbide market is expected to continue to rise in the near future.
Supply side: This week, the PVC operating rate increased slightly compared with last week, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. The expected increase in market supply is negative for the PVC spot market.
Demand side:The downstream is resisting high prices, and due to the impact of the epidemic, PVC exports are under pressure and exports are turned to domestic sales, but the domestic market demand is limited and transactions are average.
Cost surface:The raw material calcium carbide is due to the supply relationship and the downstream demand is improving, which is good for the calcium carbide spot market. The market price of calcium carbide is expected to be firm next week, which will support the cost of PVC.
It is expected that the PVC market will fluctuate at a high level next week, and may decline partially due to insufficient transactions. It is recommended to pay attention to the raw calcium carbide market Price changes and futures trends.