1. Background reasons:
In May, the US cpi (simply understood as retail price) index broke through the long-term high of 5%, the domestic data is slowly rising at 1.3%, and the domestic ppi (simply understood as The price of raw materials by enterprises) index continued to increase rapidly from 6%in April to 8.9%.
What does it mean? The global effect of the US printing money and releasing water to harvest the world is not obvious in the short-term, and it has formed an internal volume, which has caused serious domestic inflation in the United States.
In order to prevent the dollar from being harvested in the international community, commodities are also rising, leading to an increase in the ppi index. Exchange rates have also risen.
There are still a few big risks:US stocks continue to bullish, Indian stocks are also rising like a rocket (Asan can’t understand it with normal thinking), Vietnam stocks are in the mad bull (already many small partners) The gains of Vietnam’s index fund are showing off, I just laughed and said nothing).
Second, how will the current situation develop?
Let’s talk about the United States first. If the United States continues to print money and harvesting the world is not obvious, domestic inflation will continue, then The Federal Reserve will inevitably need to raise interest rates to suppress it. As a result, the U.S. and global stock markets will undergo a major adjustment. Commodities also lose the reason to continue rising prices to fight inflation, and they fall one after another.
Furthermore, in China, in the first half of this year, the prices of raw materials in enterprises have risen sharply, and residents have remained steadily consuming. Downstream companies have stopped production because their retail prices have remained unchanged. If the prices of bulk raw materials do not adjust in the second half of the year, the impact on the profit of SMEs is self-evident and more likely To offset by the large price increase of domestic commodities, I personally feel that this may not be very large.
I don’t want to say anything about the housing price. Don’t fight against the policy, or you will die It’s very miserable. The 15-year policy coaxes you to buy a house or not. It has doubled in three years. This year the policy restricts you from buying a house. It will be clear after three years.
Except for fund group stocks, the domestic stock market is not very risky, but it cannot be ignored in the world’s several countries with mad bull movements. No matter which crash, the impact on my country’s stock market will not be small.
Three, how to deal with it?
The strategy of the United States should not change day and night. They are very bad, and I don’t know what moths will come out. For ordinary people, the popular explanation of risk is that the prices of the things they buy have fallen, and their assets have shrunk. So those high-priced things, such as god wine stocks, must not be full of studs, let alone leverage. Venture investment adhere to the discipline of 10 yuan and 5 yuan. Use spare money for investment. Equity Fund I made 10%in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, I am ready to avoid risks by moisturizing storage to prevent coming again An 18-year trend. At the same time, save more money, the time for cash to be king is really coming, waiting to pick up cheap assets.
Finally, let’s talk about these briefly. If you have any questions, you don’t understand, or I’ve expressed errors in the comment section.