Write in front Words:This article was first published by me in September 2018. In the past year or so, the P2P explosion has been one after another. The top few in the industry have either so-called”benign exit” or surrendered. Including a few days ago, the legendary investment tycoon Dai Zhikang surrendered in 27 years, which has actually announced the complete death of the P2P model. In fact, since the birth of P2P, I have been extremely disinterested in this industry. The Internet platform”Qianer.com” I founded by myself in May 2013 has been tested, but I am determined not to go online until it is scrapped, because I was online at the time. I have been engaged in private lending intermediary services for more than 10 years. I also wrote a book”The Zhengzhou Guarantee Model of Private Lending”. It can be said that I have a clear understanding of the private lending intermediary service model. I often tell others:it is offline The one-to-one private lending, the risk is so great, so difficult to do, and so difficult to encounter bad debts; now using the Internet to do it, invisible and intangible, there are many customers, and risk control cannot be controlled, so the risk is unlimited. Either it was a big scam, or it was bankrupt. In the end, it must be a chicken feather. Practice in the past few years has proved that the P2P model is unsustainable, and the financial innovation encouraged by the state at that time is wrong.

(This article was first published on September 13, 2018)

This year Since then, P2P has accelerated storms, and basically achieved industry-wide Annihilation. Regarding the collapse of P2P, some people say that it is caused by the macroeconomic environment, and some people say that it is due to the delay in the inspection of compliance As a result, some people say that individual company behaves like”a mouse breaks a pot of soup”, these Of course is the reason, but at best it is the appearance. The fundamental reason is that the so-called financial innovation business model of P2P is nonsense , P2P is the worst quality in the entire financial format, and it is impossible to have sustained vitality.

First of all, the quality of the assets is extremely poor. Once the lid is lifted, either the assets are gone, or there is no way to recover the assets.

From the current situation after the P2P opened the lid (of course, I know the situation before), one situation is a typical fraud, mostly companies actually controlled by the platformSelf-fusion. In this self-financing model, the money absorbed is used to pay employee salaries, operating expenses, and return to customersinterest The principal and part of the squandered waste is the standard use of the money of the latter customers to pay the money of the former customers. The baton is pushed down one by one. When the lid is lifted by the last one, the money has been spent for many years. Basically I can’t find any assets on it.

The second model is that there is no self-financing, no fraud, and indeed the money is borrowed.Enterprises /span>, but in this case most of the money will not come back. 1. The number of borrowing companies is huge, hundreds of thousands, distributed all over the country, requiring a lot of litigation funds and personnel energy. Moreover, once the lid is lifted, this P2P platform has no source of income, and most of the personnel are scattered. It will take many years for the lawsuit to come down, and there is no financial or human energy to recover the assets. 2. P2P companies due to the high interest and comprehensive fees charged by borrowing companies, good companies will not pass this The platform borrows money, and the companies that come to P2P borrowing are basically the companies with the worst asset quality in the financial industry, and they basically don’t have high-quality assets as collateral (people with good collateral pass Bank and other channels have borrowed money), even if a lawsuit is taken to clear up the measures, not many assets are returned. 3. Since P2P has been in business for many years when the lid is opened, in this process, in order to better absorb customer funds, some of them are called in order to increase customer experience, most P2P companies have done project splits , Fund Pool and other behaviors, and even forged borrowing companies and borrowing projects in order to plug the holes. These behaviors are of course It was a helpless move. In fact, it was extremely stupid and completely illicit. It confirmed the fact that the P2P company itself illegally absorbs public deposits. More importantly, it gave The collection of accounts has brought great difficulties. If the borrowing company has a solid legal knowledge and understands the practice of the P2P platform, it can be completely legally refuted. class=”candidate-entity-word” data-gid=”4887762″ qid=”6538724228164752653″>The odds of winning are very large, that is to say, the project split and the fund pool cause the settlement of accounts even through litigation, P2P companies may not be able to win.

Secondly, the quality of P2P companies’ funded clients is worse, and the situation is even worse.

Basically thousands of customers, all over the country, all over the country. There are many different kinds of customers, including young dicks and grandpas; there are free money management, credit cards to cash out, absorb other people’s money to eat interest margins; there are small money for fun, and there are millions and thousands of people. Million investment.

More importantly, almost all customers have not received basic risk education, and they are all deceived by What country support, what rigid payment, what is the background of the listed company, and what is the investment? risk. These propaganda have caused P2P company customers to not know the risks of investment at all, and they have neither risk identification capabilities nor risk tolerance.

This type of customer with a large number of low-end customers without risk education is actually not clear about how to get accounts and how to effectively protect their own interests. Once the lid is lifted, the government often asks to open a case to block P2P companies and make trouble. After such a toss, ordinary employees of the P2P company ran away, leaving only boss a bare commander, or a few Several key personnel, faced with thousands of borrowing companies, how can they have the energy and financial resources to clear the accounts? Therefore, a rule is basically formed:P2P is still a life of singing and dancing today when it is in operation. Try to get customers to invest. Tomorrow or three or five days later, if you say no, it will not work. People will go to the building immediately. The reason behind it requires us to think deeply.

Thirdly, the advantages and disadvantages of the P2P company’s management team cannot be ignored in the P2P bankruptcy tide, and all the consequences are to blame.

The P2P industry and Internet finance have been developed in the past ten years under the encouragement of national policies. The entrepreneurial team and management team of this industry (I don’t say the big boss, liar part) mostly in their 20s and 30sUniversity graduates, this type of people has two characteristics:1. Graduated from a regular university, with high basic quality, strong learning ability, understanding marketing, management, and Internet technology; 2. , Are young people who have passed the college entrance examination under the background of the Chinese characteristic education system. There is no practical experience in understanding, understanding of commercial risks, and understanding of financial risks.

These two characteristics determine the characteristics of P2P operations. Because they understand marketing, manage well, and dare to innovate, they are very capable and capable of absorbing customers’ money. Some use innovative Internet technology to absorb customer traffic, some use so-called venture capital investment, capital operation, and state-owned enterprise platforms to endorse the company’s reputation, some use a large number of CCTV advertisements and celebrity effects to expand their influence, and some open branches across the country 、Improve customer trust through offline one-to-one communication, some deepen marketing details, focus on increasing customer experience, these measures are very effective, the team is very capable, so it is prosperous in absorbing customer funds, any company is A few hundred million, the bolder is to absorb billions, tens of billions of scale.

At the same time, because these people are young, lack business experience, and lack of financial risk awareness, there is a big problem with where the money is invested. I have a personal understanding of Shanghai. I graduated from a university of finance and economics in the early 1990s. I have also had the experience of entrepreneurial teams and executives of P2P companies today. I have been able to work hard with Shanghai. Tuition fees, investment risk tuition fees, it is easy to understand their personality characteristics and way of thinking.”If you want to enter the business circle, you will have an apprenticeship for three years.””Selling steamed buns from a small age, everything goes through.” These proverbs have been warnings to future generations of doing business for thousands of years. No matter how advanced you are, you need to go through this stage.

In recent years, I have come into contact with many P2P company executives, who have very high basic qualities. However, taking a look at the projects invested by these companies, to be honest, I do not approve of them in my heart. Looking at the risk control measures of these companies, I think most of them fail. It’s not that this group of P2P company executives have poor basic qualities, but that to a large extent they were deceived by the scum and old oil in the business sea. Some time ago, it broke out that the P2P company encountered a series of fraud cases, a group of Fujian, Zhejiang fraud gangs specialize in defrauding P2P companies, including a famous home. Many P2P companies have been deceived. The money was defrauded by fraudsters’ fake projects, and the fraudsters’ fake acquisitions made a big effort. , A company cheated is to cheat away tens of billions.

So the problem came out:on the one hand, he was very capable, able to fool, and was able to collect money. On the other hand, he didn’t know the commercial risks and financial risks. There was a problem with the investment direction of the money, just like no one. The braked car is on high speed, the speed is getting faster and faster, the brakes are becoming less and less effective, so in the end the car crashes and the P2P industry is such a status quo.

The above I have analyzed the essential characteristics of P2P companies from three aspects. The quality of assets is the worst among all financial formats. The risk control of P2P is the weakest in the entire financial system. The practitioners of the industry The quality is the lowest, and investors are almost the most adventurous and radical among the entire social population. This business model and essential characteristics determine that P2P companies are a dead end.

When a financial crisis breaks out, there is a rule:whoever has poor asset quality and whose interest is high will explode first. The crisis has gradually expanded from financial formats with high interest and poor asset quality to interest. Lowest assets and high-quality financial format, so since 2011, everyone has seen private usury companies, guarantee companiesclass="candidate-entity-word" data-gid="12162975" qid="6527569189006218504"> span> Thunder first, now P2P, trust product asset management products, listed companies, and rural commercial banks are delaying thunder breaches in turn. The next step is the turn of joint-stock banks and the five major banks!

After talking about the unsustainability of the P2P model itself. Now talk about a few focus questions.

The first is the role of the government, how to treat the role of the government in the development of the P2P industry, and what responsibilities it should bear. The P2P industry was born under the background of a strong government encouraging financial innovation. It is in the same line as the current policies of deleveraging, de-capacity, and restraining real estate. It is The inevitable tuition fee in the process of crossing the river by feeling the stones, it is meaningless to entangle too much with historical faults.

Why has the government been delaying the acceptance of P2P companies’ regulatory compliance? Because at this time, it’s not the stage of crossing the river by feeling the stones. I already knew it was wrong, what about Leizi holding it in my handResolve the problem. I know I’ve done something wrong and want to turn it off, but I can’t say it clearly. I just drag it on. Why the various departments shirk each other is because no one in each department is willing to take responsibility, and the final compliance check and acceptance has been delayed again and again.

How will the P2P industry develop in the future, and what is the government’s attitude? Don’t hold any illusions. The so-called continued compliance inspection is now to control the pace of thunderstorms and to resolve the risks in the existing stock market. There will be no new approved companies. Some time ago, in the P2P industry, the credit reporting system on the list of debtors and”coordinated advancement”, which was madly rumored in the P2P industry, could not be realized in the short term because of the background of encouraging the development of the real economy and combating violent debt collection in an environment governed by law. This idea is both illegal and against the policy. Only the creditor’s rights determined by the court can be granted The dishonesty system, if it only listens to unilateral opinions and does not go through the court’s confirmation of power, it is the style of the Cultural Revolution that will cause chaos in the world. This incident also reflects that the level of management and economy of the hall and temple is really not flattering.”Headaches, medical heads, feet pains.Footache“/span> Medical Foot”, with many slogans, many meetings, few implementations, and unrealistic policies.

The second focus is for people in the P2P industry:Don’t do this industry anymore, there is no future. There are only two conditions for the development of P2P:breaking rigid payment and small amount dispersion. To what extent is the small-amount dispersion reasonable? Too small-amount dispersion certainly diversifies the risk, but at the same time increases the management cost, and the company does not make money in the end. Can customers accept breaking the rigid payment? Acceptable is okay. In the case of unacceptable rigid payment, entrepreneurs continue to operate P2P, and in the end they must be a mess, their family is ruined, so stop it as soon as possible.

The third focal issue is for investors. 1. Now the P2P industry is like this. As long as you have participated in this industry before and invested in it, there is a high probability that you will lose your money or not come back. Even if you want to come back a little, it will take many years to toss. You must be psychologically prepared for this. 2. Even if the government is wrong, the responsibilities and losses still need to be borne by oneself. It is really useless to make noise. 3. If you encounter a fraudulent P2P company, report it, don’t count on your own money, and let the criminals go to jail and be punished to feel at ease. 4. If your money is invested in a standardized P2P company, don’t go to the company and give them time to help you get the account. The money from the standardized company is left to the borrowing company and cannot be collected. It needs to be resolved slowly and intelligently. The boss basically doesn’t have much money. The money earned in the past has been paid to you. Now that you have entered a period of several years of lawsuits, you need to spend a lot of money. These bosses are much more difficult than you, and it is not easy to get into the systemic risks. Only time to resolve. Understand each other and move forward hand in hand!