In order to cope with China’s aging, population imbalance, and low birth rate, we have made a lot of efforts in the past ten years. In 2011, the two-child policy was released, and in 2013, the two-child policy was released. In October 2015, the policy of “fully liberalizing the two-child” was introduced, and the country began to encourage families with one child to have a second child. So far, the one-child policy that has been implemented for more than 30 years has withdrawn from the stage of history. However, based on the facts of investigation and research, it is proved that raising the fertility level is much more difficult than controlling the fertility level. Economists predict that my country will likely enter the stage of”negative population growth” within five years. In the next five years, my country’s annual birth population will continue to fall below 10 million is a high probability event. The”demographic crisis” at the quantitative level has quietly arrived.
On May 31, 2021, the state further optimized the childbirth policy and implemented the policy that one couple can have three children and supporting measures. This is conducive to improving our country’s population structure, implementing the national strategy to actively respond to the aging of the population, and maintaining our country’s advantages in human resources.
This means that five years after”Comprehensive Two Children” China’s birth policy has once again undergone major adjustments. It also marks that our country has completely entered a new stage of”encouraging childbirth” from”restricting childbirth”. It is worth thinking about whether the arrival of the three-child policy will really lift the population alarm?
Currently, the main population of fertility is the”post-80s” and”post-90s”. But let alone the three-child policy, how is the two-child policy implemented? This needs to be evaluated. None of us can talk about ideals without putting aside reality. In terms of reality, the reasons behind the low willingness of young people to have children are obvious.
First of all, high housing costs have severely suppressed the fertility rate. Studies have shown that every time the house price rises by 1,000 yuan per square meter, the probability of having one child will be reduced by 1.8%to 2.9%, and the probability of having a second child will be reduced by 2.4%to 8.8%. The purchase price of millions or even tens of millions and the subsequent pressure to repay the loan are becoming the biggest obstacle to tens of thousands of young people not buying a house, falling in love, not getting married, or having a baby.
Secondly, education cost is undoubtedly what modern young people”do not want to have” Another important factor. The competition in society is becoming increasingly fierce, and cheap labor is no longer needed. As a result, the family’s requirements for children have changed from increasing the number to improving the quality. Then quality must be related to the cost of education, and the high investment in education costs discourages young people. The survey shows that the cost of childcare accounts for nearly 50%of the average household income in my country. The impact of the birth of a child on a family is obvious, and what policy needs most is to make changes to related factors and the environment.
Again, the modern concept of fertility is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and women’s willingness to give birth has been significantly reduced. According to data provided by the Health Commission, as of the end of 2020, the average number of children born in my country’s 90s was only 1.66, which is 10%lower than that of the 80s. Population monitoring data show that women who plan to have two or more children will eventually account for less than half of them. We are not surprised by this result. Nowadays, women in society are becoming more and more independent. Not only do they have a sense of independence, they also have stronger economic capabilities. The prerequisite for women to maintain these advantages is not to leave the workplace, so it is not surprising that the willingness to have children decreases.
In order to truly solve the problem of fertility, the most important thing is not to talk about fertility on fertility, but to solve deeper and original problems. It lies in how to solve the problem of childbearing costs. The fertility rate depends on land supply, real estate policy, education policy, medical policy…If these areas are not reformed, but simply liberalized the fertility policy, of course it will work for some families, but it is difficult to change the overall trend.
On June 1, 2021, population economics expert Liang Jianzhang wrote an article The plan has been approved by many people:multiple measures should be taken to encourage childbirth. In terms of housing support, house purchase subsidies can be used to return to the family; in terms of taxation, in addition to a certain amount of cash subsidies for families with two children and multiple children, they can be reduced or exempted. All or part of the social security contributions and personal income tax; at the same time, it is necessary to consider including the early childhood education into the scope of compulsory education, making it all free, and finding ways to increase the enrollment rate of 0-3 years old.
The plan proposed by experts has won unanimous praise from the majority of young people and parents. Simply put, this plan directly hits the”pain points” of many families:compared to taxation and early childhood education policies. Support, housing support is what parents care about most and can move them the most.
Ensure the public welfare of compulsory education and effectively reduce the burden on family education. Promote compulsory education schools especially Primary schools took the lead in establishing a 6 o’clock school system nationwide. The school organizes and organizes students to carry out diversity sports, hobbies, scientific exploration and other school activities after class , Make full use of school resources to achieve children’s physical training, hobbies and other education goals, and effectively reduce the burden on the family.
Supportive measures to encourage childbirth not only reduce the cost of education, but also how to solve the workplace environment problems of female employees, including the social environment. Liberalization of fertility may not necessarily increase the fertility rate, but how to make the fertility policy truly implement, that is,”how to dare to have a child”, is the key link.
For high housing prices, this mountain that tens of thousands of people cannot climb. Therefore, if we want to encourage childbirth, curb high housing prices, and help young people solve the housing problem, the key to solving the problem is.
We are now advocating and encouraging childbirth, and in the future it may be rewarding childbirth. As for stimulating population growth through fertility rewards, I personally think that the essence of the problem is not touched, because rewards are actually insignificant relative to the cost of fertility. We should emphasize the ability to implement policies in all directions, and treat them as a major issue for the country and the nation. The population problem is an overall problem, and it is necessary to have a long-term strategic vision and practical solutions to the problem. The willingness to give birth is the”bull nose” of China’s social and economic development, and it affects the whole body. Whether China can solve the population problem well is an important yardstick for examining the degree of modernization of governance capabilities.