Yesterday the live pig market ushered in a long-lost increase, which gave many pig farmers hope. Everyone believed that the live pig market would be stimulated by consumption during the May 1st holiday. Go higher and start a new upsurge. In fact, this rebound was related to the low slaughter volume at the beginning of the month, and the pork sales in the market did increase significantly. Therefore, the price increase mentality of butcher companies is relatively positive, but there are not many factors supporting the increase in the price of pigs, and it is difficult for the price of pigs to continue to rise. .
1. As soon as the pigs rise, they fall
Since the surge in pork, the consumption demand in the market has been declining, especially during the off-season of pork consumption, when the market continues to decline, which makes pig farmers extremely distressed and do not know what to do. While the May 1st pork consumption boosted, the live pig market rebounded, but it did not last long and fell again on May 4.
Pig farmers took advantage of the rising price of pigs and hurriedly sold the big pigs they had accumulated. The release volume increased, so today the market fell again, only Jiangsu rebounded slightly by 0.05 yuan/kg, other places generally fell by 0.1-0.6 yuan/kg.
As of today Live pig average price is 21.89 yuan/kg, which is 0.19 yuan lower than yesterday. class=”candidate-entity-word” data-gid=”15716918″ qid=”6548226478524339459″>The drop is not small. In Northeast China, Jilin fell 0.5 yuan, Liaoning and Heilongjiang each fell 0.4 yuan, the average price of pigs was 20.5-20.8 yuan; North China area”1 level 4 down”, Hebei Fell by 0.1 yuan, Beijing and Tianjin, Inner Mongolia each fell by 0.2 yuan, the local mainstream price is 20.8-21.8 Yuan/kg.
Northwest region, Gansu It fell by 0.2 yuan, and the other 2 places were stable. The mainstream price is 19.3-21.5 yuan/kg; currently North The lowest price has fallen to 19.3 yuan, which is a very dangerous signal. The losses of the secondary breeders have intensified, and a pig will lose about 300 yuan.
and in the southern area, the price of pigs also continued to fall, of which East China steadily declined, the mainstream price was 22.2-23.4 yuan /kg;Central China, Henan, Hunan fell by 0.1-0.4 Yuan, the other 2 places are stable, the mainstream price is 22.1-22.4 Yuan/kg, and the pig price difference is also shrinking.
In the South China region, the pig price fell by 0.1-0.4 yuan, and the market in Guangdong and Guangxi fell below 23 Hainan has stabilized, and the local mainstream price is 22.3-27.8 yuan/kg. At present, the live pig market has fluctuated and declined. Although the holiday effect has driven pork sales, the recent increase in the volume of fat pigs has caused the price of pigs to fall again under pressure.
At the same time, today’s holiday is coming to an end, and terminal consumption has fallen. Therefore, butcher companies’ There are still a lot of goods, so it is difficult for the subsequent live pig market to rebound.
Of course, the wholesale price of pork is also plummeting. It has now fallen to 30.21 yuan/kg, and the ex-factory price of white striped pigs has also fallen to 28.39 yuan. /kg, the Northeast area even got 25.35-25.57 yuan/kg.
In the Xinfadi market, ordinary pork belly has fallen to 15-17 yuan/jin, pure lean meat, butt-point meat 12 -14 yuan per catty. In rural markets, the retail price basically fell to 15-19 yuan.
Second, Imports soaring
In addition to the decline in consumer demand in the market, most of the pork in the market is fat fat. The volume of slaughter has increased, and the supply of pork is sufficient. At the same time, due to the continuous decline of pig prices after the year, many pig farmers have the psychology of lowering prices. With the increasing risk of pig prices, the stock of large pigs continues to increase. It is expected that the live pig market in May will be constrained.
Of course, today’s pigs production capacity is also continuing to recover. As of the end of March, the number of live pigs has increased to 416 million, and the number of sows has increased to 43.18 million, and it has recovered to 96.6%in 2017. It is expected that production capacity will return to normal in June and July. In the last 4-5 months, the slaughter volume will continue to return to normal levels.
From the perspective of feed demand, the feed consumption in the first quarter was 30.27 million tons, a 76%increase compared to the same period in 20 years. Production capacity has been fully restored.
At the same time, the volume of imports has continued to increase. The volume of pork imported from January to March was 1.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 27%. At the same time, due to special reasons at the end of last year, imported meat was backlogged at the port. With the improvement of the domestic situation, these imported pork were also sold in large quantities to the market.
March, May fall to the end?
From the relevant data, the live pig dropped by 40.47%during the year, while the pork dropped by 36.6%. However, the turning point of the live pig market in 2020 is May 18, after which pig prices have ushered in a continuous surge. So after mid-May this year, will the market usher in a big rise? Or do you continue to be unable to fall?
An industry insider said that this year’s market is significantly different from last year. It is expected that prices will continue to fall in May, mainly two bad news.
1. Niuzhu continueLast slaughter
In April, the live pig market continued to fall. Although pig farmers repeatedly pressed for slaughter, the price of pigs was more than 300 kilograms. There are too many cows and pigs, and as a result, they can only be forced to sell. It is reported that there are still a lot of cattle and pigs in the hands of pig companies, and coupled with the increase in secondary fattening, it is expected that the number of cattle and pigs for slaughter will increase from May to July. However, the market’s demand for fat and fat meat is not high, so the price of butchers is obviously suppressed.
2. Imported meat hits a new high
As the holiday draws to a close, terminal pork consumption Demand is bound to fall again. However, imports of pork will increase in May. According to news, 31 meat companies in the United States have entered the market for frozen meat in U.S. Domestically, this will also restrain the rebound of pig prices.
It can be said that the pig price and pork market will still be in a downturn in the short term. What do you think of this?