According to the latest analysis of Bloomberg Intelligence, the valuation of Ant Group may be further reduced.
Earlier this month, Francis Chen, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, lowered the valuation of Ant Group from approximately RMB 1.44 trillion to less than RMB 1 trillion. Recently, the analyst estimated that, The valuation of the Alipay service of Ant Group may be reduced by half, which will result in Ant Group’s valuation of less than 700 billion yuan (about 108 billion US dollars).
This latest valuation is 66%lower than Ant Group’s valuation of up to US$320 billion before the IPO in November last year.
In the past few months, Ant Group has been at the core of the regulatory storm.
In November 2020, Ant Group was originally scheduled to be on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange at the same time as the Technology Innovation Board Going public, raised funds reached a record 35 billion U.S. dollars, but on the eve of the listing, the listing process was stopped.
Alipay, which has about 1 billion users, currently controls 55%of the mobile payment market share. However, with the strengthening of financial supervision, there is a high demand for Ant Group to spin off Alipay. One of the reasons for the collapse in the valuation of Ant Group, and Francis Chen also doubts whether Ant Group can go public this year.
Although the regulatory level does not require the Ant Group to spin off, the central bank emphasizes that “Ant Group must fully recognize the seriousness and necessity of rectification” and “make rectification plans and implementation timetables as soon as possible”. There are still many variables.
On the morning of January 20th, Jack Ma rarely”showed up” and talked with hundreds of rural teachers. Although he did not speak up on any issues of the Ant Group, he still received a lot of attention.
But subtly, on the same day the central bank issued the”Non-bank Regulations on Payment Institutions (Draft for Comment).
The Regulations rarely propose that, for example, a non-bank payment institution’s market share in the national electronic payment market has reached two One-third, or two-thirds of the two market shares in total, may be subject to”anti-monopoly investigation.”
If a monopoly is identified, the central bank can recommend to the State Council’s anti-monopoly law enforcement agency to take measures such as stopping abuse of market dominance, stopping the implementation of concentration, and splitting non-bank payment institutions according to the type of payment business.
The anti-monopoly of the regulatory authorities has entered the payment field.
On January 16, the five ants strategic placement fund issued an announcement and went public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on January 21. The latest scale, share, and number of holders of several products have also been disclosed. So far, the share of the Ant Group’s strategic placement fund has shrunk by one-third, and 2.6 million households have exited.
The continuous tightening of market supervision and the rush to sell off the market make Ant Group’s recent days difficult.