“Delaying retirement is not a problem, and there is no solution. It is a trend, and individuals cannot escape and can only follow the trend.”
On March 12, the postponement of retirement was”fixed”. The”14th Five-Year Plan” and the 2035 long-term goal outline announced that day clearly stated that the statutory retirement age should be gradually postponed in accordance with the principles of”small step adjustments, flexible implementation, classified advancement, and overall consideration.”
Previously, on February 26, Vice Minister of Human Resources and Social Security You Jun stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that if retirement is not delayed, my country’s working-age population is expected to decrease by 3,500 during the”14th Five-Year Plan” period. Million. Coupled with the decline in the birth rate and the no longer demographic dividend, the phenomenon of”difficult recruitment” and”labor shortage” will become more prominent.
In fact, delayed retirement is not unique to our country. In the international community, the retirement age in countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States has exceeded 65 years of age. In the first half of 2019, Japan submitted an amendment to increase the retirement age of employees from 65 to 70. Former Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo even proposed to create a”society that never retires.”
“Japan is a very typical example. It only postponed the retirement age, and fundamental issues such as aging and declining birthrates have not been resolved, and the resulting economic recession has not improved.” March 17 In the”China Business News” Tentacle Life Protection Classroom series of live classes, Li Jia, deputy director and researcher of the Pangu Think Tank Aging Society Research Center, said that delaying retirement is to get out of the predicament of”drinking poison to quench thirst”. Individuals under the delayed retirement policy can also make a difference.
“Aging is not a peak, but a plateau”
When talking about delayed retirement policies, we cannot get out of the background of aging.
Taking 2018 as the time node, four things have happened:the number and proportion of the elderly population in my country have exceeded the number and proportion of children and children, the working-age population has fallen below 900 million, and the total employed population is the first time. There has been a decline, and the birth rate has dropped to the first new low since the founding of New China.
“This means that 2018 marks the beginning of my country’s entry into an era in which the elderly population is the mainstay.” Li Jia said that after 2050, the proportion of the elderly population over 60 in my country will be Long-term maintenance of more than 1/3,”aging will show a plateau situation.”
With the increase in the average life expectancy (as of the end of 2019, the average life expectancy in my country has reached 77.3 years, and the life expectancy of urban residents has reached 80 years), coupled with the postponement of the employment age of the labor force in my country and the shortening of the working period The current status of declining numbers and increasing pressure on pensions makes it quite possible to delay retirement.
You Jun, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, once said, “At present, my country’s retirement age does not match the average life expectancy and does not adapt to changes in labor supply and demand, resulting in a waste of human resources.” On March 12, the extended retirement”16-character policy” was promulgated.
What are the benefits of delaying retirement? In Li Jia’s view, the benefits are mainly reflected in three aspects:conducive to the continuation of the current pension system, conducive to maintaining the supply of labor, individuals can actively participate in society and accumulate more wealth.
But Li Jia also reminded that individuals and companies need to face up to the impact of delayed retirement, especially companies. On the one hand, the physical strength and ability of elderly employees may decline. Companies should consider how to arrange jobs to avoid high salaries and low energy, and how to develop the experience and advantages of elderly employees. On the other hand, for managers, they also need to think about how to manage employees who are older than themselves, and how to determine the social security payment standards for elderly employees.
“Beware of delaying retirement into the predicament of drinking poison to quench thirst”
According to Li Jia, across the world, there are three specific methods for delaying retirement in different countries. First, men and women are of the same age, that is, the retirement ages of different men and women are unified into the same. Second, take small steps and go fast.”The highest level of delay in retirement in the West is that people cannot feel it.” Third, flexible retirement, you can retire early, but the pension is less than the normal retirement.
Correspond to our country. After the”16-character policy” was promulgated, Jin Weigang, dean of the Chinese Academy of Labor and Social Security Sciences of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said in an interview with the media that the reform will not be”one step in place”, but will adopt a gradual reform, with a delay of several months every year. Or delay for 1 month every few months. In addition, delaying the approval will not implement a “one size fits all” approach, and it will increase the space for individuals to independently choose to retire early.
“We still need to pay attention to one thing, beware of the’Hannibal Dilemma’.” Li Jia explained that the so-called”Hannibal Dilemma” is a kind of non-virtuous circle, that is, against a certain The single action taken by the phenomenon cannot satisfy the structural challenge of the trend to the existing system, and “falls into the trap of local optimality”.
In Li Jia’s view, from the perspective of foreign practice, the degree of aging continues to increase, and the retirement age also continues to increase.”Delaying retirement is only to ease the impact of aging, not to solve the impact of aging. , This is not a’real problem solving'”.
Take Japan as an example. In 2019, Japan proposed to allow companies to increase the employment age from 65 to 70. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe even proposed to”build a society that never retires.” However, in Li Jia’s view, Japan is just continuing to delay, but the fundamental aging problem, declining birthrate, and the resulting economic recession have not been improved.
How can our country avoid the”Hannibal Dilemma”?
Li Jia said, first of all, it is necessary to further understand the complexity of population aging. The power to promote aging is not isolated longevity, but also involves many factors such as low birth rate and population migration.”This requires that when we implement delayed retirement, we must not copy foreign practices, but must be closely integrated with the actual situation in China.”
Secondly, we must use delayed retirement as an opportunity to comprehensively promote work methods. The fundamental change of”the core of delaying retirement is not never to retire, but to retire without taking a break.”
Finally, a larger-scale flexible retirement mechanism can be implemented. For example, taking the current 60-year-old as the standard, it will fluctuate up and down by 15 years.”This means that we have to allow people to choose to retire early at the age of 45. This seems to be inconsistent with delayed retirement, but it is not.” Li Jia said.
“Recognize reality and stay healthy”
In the face of delayed retirement, what can individuals do?
Li Jia suggested that we should first recognize”where is the current employment method”. Specifically, the current employment methods are divided into four categories. The first category is formal employment represented by civil servants, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises; the second category is informal employment of labor dispatch; the third category is part-time jobs such as express delivery and takeaway; the fourth category is freelance jobs such as Didi drivers and writers.
“When it comes to delayed retirement, most of the reemployment that individuals can choose is concentrated in the part of”part-time work”.” In Li Jia’s view, after delaying retirement, personal re-employment, the first thing they face is not Downgrading is a change in employment channels.”Many experts say that delaying retirement will not affect employment because new jobs will continue to be created. But in fact, the new jobs created are rarely formal jobs.”
Li Jia believes that what an individual can do is”preparation in four aspects.”
First, we must maintain good health.”For the Chinese, the pressure on food, clothing, housing and transportation is relatively not too great. The biggest reason for’old age bankruptcy’ is illness.” Li Jia reminded this, not to blindly”use youth for the future.” In addition, the second to fourth points are to maintain a positive attitude, a rich life and the accumulation of wealth.
“When we talked about’talking about the old-fashioned’, this kind of anxiety is actually unnecessary. It is most important to prepare for the above four aspects and start planning from now.” Li Jia finally quoted To quote Chu Shijian’s words,”I never had the concept of retirement in my mind.”
(Editor:Huang Yulu proofreading:Peng Yufeng)