For Shanghai, a major change is coming!

Shanghai, a”single center” city, will be transformed into a central city and five”independent comprehensive node cities.”

Promoting the implementation of the”1+5″ structure is one of Shanghai’s work priorities during the 14th Five-Year Plan.

According to Xinmin Evening News, the Standing Committee of the Municipal Party Committee held on December 31, 2020 listened to the”Shanghai National Economic and Social Development Fourteenth Five-Year Plan and the 2035-Year Vision Goal Outline”(Draft) Preparation status report. The”Outline” proposes that in the next five years, Shanghai will speed up the construction of a new spatial pattern of”central radiation, two wings flying together, new city development, north-south transformation”, the five new cities of Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian and Nanhui will be built Become an independent comprehensive node city.

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Above:In the Shanghai 2035″General Regulations”, the city is divided into 1 central city area and 4 main city areas (Hongqiao, Baoshan, Chuansha, Minhang) 5 new cities.

On January 23, the Shanghai CPPCC and citizens held an online exchange meeting. The chairman of the CPPCC and the director of the Municipal Commission of Population, Resources and Environment Construction and other high-level officials revealed about this strategy For more information.

1. The five new cities of Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, and Nanhui are positioned as independent comprehensive node cities,not sub-city centers or satellite cities Or suburban new city. The purpose is to build a modern big city, the growth pole of the Yangtze River Delta, and fundamentally change the development of the suburban depression.

2. The focus of the”Five New Towns” is not to undertake population evacuation and functional evacuation in the central city, but Incremental articles, to enhance the agglomeration and radiation capabilities of the new city, and stand out in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

3. Judging from the original plan and current reality,According to the population size of a large city with a population of more than 1 million, the five new cities have large Import space. And the new population layout is not only scale expansion, but also structural optimization-focusing on age structure, talent structure…

The question then comes:Why does Shanghai propose”1+5″”The new urban development strategy, what will it bring to Shanghai?

If you are sensitive enough, you will find that Shanghai’s”1+5″ urban development strategy is similar to the”Jincheng + Bincheng” dual-city strategy just proposed by Tianjin.

They don’t think of their own city as”a city”, but 2 cities or 6 cities.

Why do the two municipalities have such a new change? The reason is that the General Secretary wrote an article in Qiushi magazine on November 1, 2020-“Several Major Issues in the National Medium and Long-term Economic and Social Development Strategy”, and proposed to”improve the urbanization strategy.”

There is a passage in the article that directly mentioned Shanghai:

The concentration of industries and population in advantageous regions is an objective economic law, but the scale of a single city cannot expand indefinitely. At present, the population density of my country’s megacities (with a permanent population of more than 10 million in urban areas) and megacities (with a permanent population of more than 5 million in urban areas) is generally high. There are only about 13,000 people in New York.

In the long run, cities across the country must reasonably control population density based on actual conditions, and the average population density of large cities must have control standards. It is necessary to build a batch of new suburban cities with integrated industry and city, balanced occupation and housing, ecological livability, and convenient transportation,promote multi-center and suburban development, and orderly promote the construction of digital cities , Improve the ability of intelligent management, and gradually solve the problem of dense population and functions in the central city.

The article also proposes that eastern cities”should optimize the internal spatial structure of urban agglomerations” and”promote the development of urban clusters, forming a multi-center, multi-level, and multi-node network urban agglomeration structure.”.

Whether it is the change in Tianjin or the change in Shanghai, they all appeared in this context.

Another important background is:China’s urban competition is showing a new pattern, and a number of emerging cities such as Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chongqing are rising rapidly, which is influencing the original pattern of “North, Shanghai, and Guangzhou”. A disruptive shock.

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For example, the above table is a ranking of the total market value of listed companies in mainland cities, which intuitively shows the competitiveness of major cities in the capital market and the comprehensive strength of the industry. Shanghai has been severely challenged, and it is no longer in the era when it”stablely ranked first in the country.”

Why is Shanghai being challenged? It is closely related to two factors:

First, every city has”path dependence”. Shanghai became China’s economic center more than 100 years ago, with an old industrial structure. In addition, as the base camp of the planned economy era, Shanghai’s market mechanism is not as complete and flexible as Shenzhen and Zhejiang.

Secondly, Shanghai followed Beijing to restrict its population size. In recent years, population growth has been very limited. The fertility rate of Shanghai’s registered population is obviously low, even the death rate cannot keep up with it, and the aging population is serious.

If these unfavorable factors are changed, the development prospects of Shanghai Development will be worrying, and it is not impossible to be fully surpassed by Shenzhen.

The proposal of the”1+5″ strategy this time demonstrates Shanghai’s ambitions and is conducive to filling the above two shortcomings.

According to the 2035 version of Shanghai’s previously announced master plan, the population size of the five major new cities is not high:

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In the previous plan, the total population of the five major new cities is limited to 3.85 million people.

The latest official statement from Shanghai is-“According to the size of a large city with a population of more than 1 million, the five new cities have a lot of room for introduction.” In other words, the total population will grow from 3.85 million to more than 5 million.

Of course, Shanghai is robbing talents, focusing on the age structure and talent structure, rather than simply grabbing people like other cities, where everything is in the basket.

Someone may ask:Has the positioning of these 5 new cities changed a lot?

Yes.

If they are only satellite cities, or suburban new cities, or urban sub-centers, then urban functions will not be very complete. The reason for emphasizing that they are”independent comprehensive node cities” is not only”independent” but also”comprehensive”.

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Above:Comparing the heat maps of Shanghai and Shenzhen at the same scale, Shenzhen’s multi-centralization is obviously better than Shanghai, and the built-up area is no smaller than Shanghai.

In other words, the previous positioning will be adjusted, and comprehensive functions will be fully added. Moreover, there should be a wider green belt separating the five node cities from the main urban area to avoid spreading the pie.

More importantly, the five new cities have this positioning:Building a modern metropolis, a growth pole in the Yangtze River Delta, Changes in the development of depressions in the suburbs.

This is a major benefit for the five major new cities, which means that their functions have been comprehensively improved, their status has been comprehensively improved, and the population ceiling has been comprehensively increased.

The status of the five major new cities in the Shanghai metropolitan area will also rise in an all-round way, and they must play an important role. Of course, this in turn is bad for the surrounding districts and counties such as Jiashan, Kunshan, Taicang, and Wujiang.

Previously, Shanghai proposed in the 2035 version of the General Regulations that by 2035, the permanent population of Shanghai will be controlled at around 25 million, and the total construction land size will not exceed 3,200 square kilometers.

Does the”new positioning” of the five major new cities mean that the above”ceiling” can be broken? The official has no authoritative explanation for this.

My opinion is:Breakthrough is a must!

The 2035 version of the general regulations was passed in 2017. Now we are facing major changes unseen in a century, and we must start a dual-cycle strategy. Even Beijing has begun to build a free trade zone to strengthen its functions as an economic center and financial center to a certain extent. Of course, Shanghai must have new breakthroughs.

The repositioning of the five new cities means that Shanghai has undergone a major turning point in its urban spatial structure, population and talent policies, which is a great benefit to Shanghai’s future development. Especially for the development of the five new cities and the development of the suburbs, it is very good.

The real estate in the suburbs of Shanghai will undergo a revaluation.

Liu Xiaobo Talks about Finance and Economics Liu Xiaobo

This article is derived from Liu Xiaobo Talks about Finance and Economics