This is a war without gunsmoke, but it may be more severe than the war
After the subprime mortgage in 2008, the global economy has been in a downturn, and traditional stimulus cannot restart the pulse of the global economy ……
The progress of science and technology is the only hope, so , Many technological vents are rising in the wind.
such as unmanned driving, Internet of Things, big data, surgical robots, artificial Smart, smart home, e-commerce
But behind all these new terms, They all hide a low-level logic
What is the base of these holy grails?
Chip and 5G
those who have chip and 5G win the world
The United States is afraid of it, and it is precisely China’s rapid rise in these two aspects…..
The chess game has already been set, and confrontation is inevitable.
In March 2018, the United States decided to impose a tariff of 25% on steel and aluminum imported from China.
On the surface, The improvement in Sino-US relations is due to the long-term trade surplus. Trump believes that the United States has suffered a loss and wants China to increase tariffs, but in fact there are other deeper reasons.
The two things that China imports the most from overseas each year, costing the most foreign exchange Yes:Food and Chips
Food is about 2000 Billion US dollars, and the chip reached 300 billion US dollars.
If controlling oil means controlling industry, controlling Food modernization means controlling survival, and controlling chips means controlling high technology.
If there is no autonomous chip, the future is bound to be controlled by others, so Since 2014, it has been vigorously promoting the development of the semiconductor industry through policies. From September 2014 to 2017, a fund was established to raise 138.72 billion yuan and invested in 55 projects
In 2017, the second phase of the large fund started, with a scale of 200 billion yuan. China’s chip semiconductor industry is truly developing rapidly in 2015. The promotion of the national fund is indispensable.
China’s rapid rise in the semiconductor industry has made Europe and the United States very uneasy.
In 2017, there was an article:”Australian Media Says China’s Semiconductor Industry Policy” Terrible”:Challenging the U.S. Domination”, detailed analysis, the author said:
“China announced in a fairly clear and definite tone that it intends to implement a radical and highly interventional industrial policy to rapidly develop the domestic semiconductor industry. Its goal is very bold:China plans to make production in all major areas of the semiconductor industry by 2030 Ability to reach the world’s advanced level…These terrible industrial policies will create some difficult dilemmas for the United States. Maintaining the dominance of the semiconductor industry is for American policymakers, and the desire to”catch up with” the world’s advanced level is for Chinese officials It’s equally important.”
At that time, China and the United States had not yet met each other, but the article has Insight into this Sino-US friction a year later.
In March 2018, Trump used trade as an excuse in the White House, but Xiangzhuang’s sword dance was intended for Pei Gong… …
After that, within a month, the United States began to manipulate another line:Huawei, what is Huawei? Huawei represents the world’s leading level of 5G technology. Huawei’s 5G patented technology accounted for about 50%, and it signed the world’s largest number of 5G commercial contracts. It was the world’s largest 5G manufacturer at that time.
To start with Huawei is to start with China’s 5G
But the United States did not directly attack Huawei, but first I took ZTE and tried it out.
On the evening of April 16, 2018, the US government suddenly announced:The company sells component products to ZTE for a period of 7 years.
Starting from 2018, 7 years is just 2025.
ZTE is the first Chinese company that the United States started. They were very happy to see that this world-class communications giant, like Toshiba at the time, was quickly defeated.
In August of that year, when the butcher knife against Huawei was officially raised, Trump signed the”National Defense Authorization Act”, prohibiting US government agencies and contractors from using Huawei and other Certain technologies of Chinese companies;
In November 2018, the US government together with Germany, Italy and Japan included Countries, require their telecommunications companies to avoid using Huawei’s equipment;
In December 2018, at the request of the United States, Huawei’s vice chairman and chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver, Canada.
On May 15, 2019, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will include Huawei and its subsidiaries on the”entity list” for export control.
In other words:The United States stopped supplying Huawei with chips and other key components through sanctions.
For the future of China’s communications and semiconductors, the two extremely important technology industries Say, if Huawei wins, 5G wins; if 5G wins, China wins!
Even Professor Jin Canrong said that Huawei is the Shangganling of the Sino-US technology war.
After Huawei, the United States has opened up a new front, stepping up its efforts against China Containment of chips.
To what extent, after September 15, Huawei’s mobile phone chips Will face the risk of cutting off the supply.
Just like this article The beginning description:If the chip is removed, many highly intelligent devices are a pile of scrap copper and rotten iron.
The chip is the core of the technology.
In this context, China has further introduced and supported the semiconductor industry Policy.”Under the background of increasingly fierce technological competition between China and the United States, in order to support the integrated circuit industry, which is the core of technological self-reliance, China has introduced’exceptional’ taxation support policies. China will reach the goal of 70%semiconductor self-sufficiency by 2025.
The U.S. once again escalated sanctions after prohibiting U.S. companies from supplying chips to China. Non-U.S. chip companies such as TSMC are also not allowed to export chips to China in one direction. .
Without external supply, China can only switch to internal production. That is, the largest chip manufacturing company, SMIC. Support has also increased.
In mid-July this year, SMIC was listed on the A-share sci-tech innovation board. From the submission of application materials to the official listing, only It took 45 days to set the fastest record in the Chinese stock market. From this alone, we can see the strategic position of SMIC.
SMIC’s response to Chinese chips The development of the industry has a strong strategic significance. SMIC represents the highest level of chip manufacturing in mainland China and achieved mass production of the 14-nanometer process last year. Compared with TSMC, there is a gap of about 3-5 years. TSMC is in Mass production of 14 nanometers in 2015 and 5 nanometers in 2020.
The United States quickly realized this, and sanctions followed.
If U.S. sanctions put SMIC on the sanctions blacklist, It may cause SMIC’s US suppliers to obtain a special license before supplying them. The approval of this special license is difficult to obtain,
Suppressed by rumors of sanctions, SMIC’s stock plunged 24%on September 7 in the Hong Kong market and 11%in A shares.
This is a war without gunpowder.
Trump’s risky move is not a tense one.
As the final result of the general election is approaching, Trump will not hesitate to play hard chess to Demonstrate toughness against China.
However, the evil consequences also follow, and the global industrial chain takes a toll As for the overall situation, the sanctions on a series of Chinese technology companies such as Huawei and ZTE have also caused the dilemma of domestic technology manufacturers in the United States.
To whom will the mass production goods be sold as planned?
In addition to this year’s epidemic, U.S. technology stocks rose as soon as they saw the wind. The highest exceeded the level at the beginning of the year by 33.5%, and this year it hit a record high 35 times.
To make funerals a happy event, rely on a silly breath.
But the US sanctions on Chinese chips and the containment of 5G have reversed effects , Causing the U.S. technology stocks to rise in price.
On September 3, US technology stocks fell sharply, including Facebook , Apple, Netflix and Google owned by Alphabet, fell as much as 3.5%to 7.9%.
Finally, let’s take a look at the logic of the entire event:
The core of technology lies in:chip and communication efficiency (5G). On this basis, it will cultivate The creation of new technological outlets is the key to future competition among major powers.
China’s rapid rise in the chip and 5G industries has caused anxiety in the United States In recent years, China has made rapid efforts in chips and 5G.
Since March 2018, the U.S. has provoked trade friction and moved quickly To:Chips and 5G
Huawei represented by 5G, And SMIC represented by chips
It must be The aim of the American muzzle. This is where the game between big countries begins.
A shares have fallen sharply in the past week, which is essentially a sanction on chips I am worried that if it cannot be bought externally, it cannot be manufactured internally due to US sanctions. The short-term challenge will be huge
As a counterproductive effect, American technology companies, as a link in the global industrial chain, will suffer short-term severe pains due to the lack of participation of Chinese heavy-weight companies and product demand.
So in the future, there will be many variables that will affect the trend of the game. I believe that in mutual negotiation and mutual compromise, especially After the dust settles in the US presidential election, there will be new opportunities.
If the West is to impose a complete blockade on China, it will inevitably accelerate internal tearing crack. It’s not that it’s impossible to achieve a complete decoupling, but at least you need to have a very high right to speak for the inner right? It’s easier said than done, and what is the price? The only thing that can be said to move leftists is that a complete blockade will inevitably lead to a total collapse of China. The purpose of giving up immediate interests now is to obtain higher interests in the future. But what time is it now? It’s hard for everyone to live, and you still make people give up their immediate interests? This will inevitably lead to an internal prisoner game. Even if it can stabilize the military at present, if China makes a breakthrough in chip technology, it will definitely accelerate the prisoner game within the West. In this context, it will be very difficult to maintain a united front against China, and it will require the extremely high political wisdom of Western political leaders. , But there is currently no sign of such a leader coming forward. There is really not much time left for Western rightists.
Reposted from:Xu Ge Finance
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