The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festivals are coming soon, and the demand for national travel is expected to be released intensively, and domestic scenic spots, hotels and other sectors will serve as alternative demands to undertake part of the national outbound consumption demand (my country’s outbound consumption in 2018) There are 149 million tourists, and outbound tourists spend more than 130 billion U.S. dollars abroad). At that time, scenic spots and hotels may usher in a significant recovery.
Looking at the overall catering and tourism sector, we believe that the overall domestic epidemic has stabilized and some regional disturbances can be quickly and effectively controlled.
In the short term, the impact of the epidemic continues to show marginal improvement. For example, at the end of August, the daily flight volume of China’s civil aviation has returned to 90%before the epidemic. According to Qunar.com data, This year’s summer hotel bookings have returned to 80%of the same period last year;
In the long run, the epidemic has not substantially changed industry demand. With reference to historical data, tourism consumption demand suppressed by the epidemic will appear Explosive release, we are firmly optimistic about the rapid growth of demand in the optional consumer market as the epidemic continues to improve.
The elasticity of performance in the third quarter is considerable
Under the background of economic internal circulation, national consumption has been stimulated. At present, the valuation level (21E) of the catering and tourism sector is still at a historically low level, with a good margin of safety, and the performance flexibility is considerable under the stimulation of domestic demand.
With the landing of the semi-annual report, we believe that the dark moment of the catering and tourism industry as a whole has passed, and the third quarter is expected to be the starting point for marginal improvement in performance, and it is still an optional consumption layout. During the core window period, some targets may bring more comfortable buying points after callback.
Continue to focus on the long-term white horse, optimistic that the leading company still has a strong extension and long-term growth logic, continue to recommend China Freedom, Songcheng Performing Arts, Guangzhou Restaurant; hotel leading:Jinjiang Hotel, BTG Hotel etc.
Technology:Hardware Innovation Cycle
The 5G commercial curtain has already been opened. We believe that the 5G replacement wave is expected to drive the recovery of the smartphone industry, and the progress and development of communication technology is expected to lead Come new products and new applications.
Throughout the history of Apple’s innovation, every ten years Apple will usher in the rise of a new category of terminals;
Station At the current time, the wearable device relay iPhone has become the focus of Apple’s efforts, and a new round of hardware innovation cycle in the IoT era is about to begin.
Under the Apple innovation cycle, Apple’s new product launch will give a boost to the entire Apple industry chain, even if the iPhone 12 will be absent from the conference. It is recommended to pay attention to related objects such as iPad and AppleWatch in the Apple industry chain.
Semiconductor domestic demand is strong
At the beginning of the year, we saw that the global semiconductor market in 2019 decreased by 12.8%year-on-year to 408.988 billion US dollars. In contrast, the domestic sales of the integrated circuit industry in 2019 was 756.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%.
According to the latest data released by SIA, the global semiconductor market in the first half of 2020 increased by 5.2%year-on-year, with sales reaching 208.5 billion US dollars. According to statistics from the China Semiconductor Industry Association, the sales of China’s integrated circuit industry from January to June 2020 was 353.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, a slight increase over the first quarter.
This shows that China’s internal market demand is still strong, and the domestic substitution process is smooth. Moreover, the domestic substitution space is still huge, and we believe that the semiconductor industry will maintain a relatively high growth rate in the future. At the moment when external friction is intensifying, the localization of core components has been paid more attention by terminal manufacturers.
In the semiconductor segment with the largest market scale-the memory market, we believe that Hefei Changxin and Yangtze River Storage’s domestic memory DRAM, NAND has been mass-produced and commercialized one after another. Under the situation that international friction may intensify, it will greatly help domestic demand, and continue to be optimistic about the general trend of domestic substitution.
①The Apple industry chain whose performance is expected to reach new highs under the innovation cycle (Luxshare Precision, Song Shares, Lansi Technology)
②The domestically-made substitutes for fast-moving semiconductors (Unigroup, SMIC, Rockchip, Wingtech, Weil, Zhuoshengwei, Zhaoyi Innovation, Shengbang, Star Semiconductor, China Resources Micro, Minxin) p>
③The LCD industry is improving due to the clearing of South Korean production capacity (TCL Technology, BOE A)
Last weekend, a symposium held by scientists emphasized speeding up technology Innovation promotes key core technology research in important areas; Science and Technology Innovation 50ET was approved; Apple’s press conference is just around the corner. Recently, there have been continuous catalysts around technological innovation. These have all contributed to the rebound.
I wish everyone a smooth investment and the stock will grow red!