In the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, the price of poultry meat A year-on-year increase of 42.0%, of which pork prices increased by 52.6%, beef and mutton prices also increased by about 10%, while chicken prices fell 1.6%year-on-year, the first drop in recent 3 years.
Friends who often eat fast food may find that in recent times, many fast food industries have also set off a wave of”price cuts” for chicken. Products are often discounted and promoted. When the price of all kinds of meat is rising, why does the price of chicken keep falling?
The national chicken price is weakly running
First drop in 3 years
In a large fresh supermarket in Chaoyang District, Beijing, the person in charge of the supermarket’s purchasing and marketing department said that after the Spring Festival this year, the price of broiler products has been slowly falling Among them, even with occasional pick-ups, the overall price remained weak in general. Products with large drops like chicken breasts dropped by 3 yuan, or about 30%, from one kilogram at the beginning of the year.
The reporter also understood in the interview It will take some time for the broiler products and frozen stock products to be digested in the early stage of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Zhang, researcher, Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Li:Last year, the expansion of production capacity was relatively obvious, and then this year was affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, consumption was relatively sluggish, and the overall situation was oversupply, resulting in prices that have been weak.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, since the beginning of this year, the average price of white striped chicken in the market has dropped from about 24 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of the year to about 21 yuan in August, a cumulative drop of about 10%. In the first two weeks of September, the price of white striped chicken was 21.9 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of more than 6%.
Shandong:Broiler farming experience”roller coaster”
Chicken seedlings prices have fallen sharply
In fact, market price fluctuations of broilers are closely related to their production and supply. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first half of this year, my country’s poultry meat output increased by 6.8%year-on-year, and broiler production capacity has remained high. What are the reasons for the substantial increase in supply? Will the supply of broilers continue to increase in the next step?
In Qingzhou City, Shandong Province, Zhang Qinghai runs a farm that produces 300,000 chickens per year. He told reporters that the breeding of white feather broilers from last year to this year can be said to be a “roller coaster” The price of white feather broiler chicken feather chicken reached 7 yuan per catty at the end of October last year. In the first half of this year, the price dropped to 1.5 yuan per catty. Recently, the price of feather chicken has rebounded to 3.3 yuan per catty, which is basically the same as the cost price.
Zhang Qinghai, a broiler farmer in Qingzhou City, Shandong Province :Last year’s best batch of market, a chicken profit of 12.5 yuan, this year when the market’s worst, like my chicken farm, a chicken also had to pay about ten yuan.
Introduced by Zhang Qinghai, the average price of domestic white feather broilers from January to August this year was 3.66 yuan per catty, down by more than 20%year-on-year, mainly due to the high price of pigs last year. Operation drives the boom in broiler breeding, the broiler market is improving, profitability is increasing, and the enthusiasm of farmers to expand production is significantly increased.
The reporter learned that this year, the epidemic situation was more serious from February to April, and most of the time, domestic chickens slaughtered continued to increase. From January to July, domestic white feather broilers were slaughtered 2.786 billion, year-on-year Increase by 14%.
According to the demand situation, this year’s epidemic As a result, consumption in the catering industry has shrunk, and domestic broiler market demand has fallen. Last year, the highest price of chicks was 13 yuan per bird, and now the domestic price of chicks is only 2.5 yuan per bird, a drop of up to 80%.
Imports of ancestral breeders increased
Broiler production capacity is still high
Similar to the”pig cycle”, the price of chicken generally fluctuates with production capacity. In this cycle of cycles, what is the next trend of chicken prices?
The reporter learned in an interview in Shandong that this year, the benefits of broiler farming and the price of chicken fry fell sharply, mainly due to the rapid expansion of production capacity last year.
Sun Yanan, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that my country’s ancestral breeders have long relied on imports. The United States, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Poland and France are all countries that can be introduced in my country, and they are affected by avian influenza. Influence, New Zealand introduces more species at present.
As of the end of August, white feather broilers The average inventory of the grandparent breeder and parent breeder increased by 23.8%and 5%respectively year-on-year. Due to the high production capacity, the market supply is sufficient.
Zhuochuang Information Analyst Sun Yanan :As the production capacity of our ancestral breeders continues to be passed on, it is expected that in the second half of 2020, including the first half of 2021, the production capacity will show an increase. The expected increase in production capacity will be 10%to 20%. From a point of view, there is a slight drop from last year. Except for excluding seasonal growth reasons, domestic broiler prices are expected to show a low level of operation.
Editor of Shenyang Daily New Media Center (Shenyang Net):Dong Junzi