The CPI in August ended its two-month continuous upward momentum.
According to today’s data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI in August rose 2.4%year-on-year The month fell by 0.3 percentage points. The narrowing year-on-year increase in food prices was the main reason for the fall in CPI growth in August, and the fall in pork price growth was the main reason for the fall in food prices. Pork prices rose by 52.6%in August, a sharp drop of 33.1 percentage points from the previous month. From a month-on-month perspective, pork prices rose for three consecutive months in August, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2%, a decline of 9.1 percentage points.
The industry believes that as production capacity gradually recovers, pork prices will gradually Back to normal, 10 yuan a catty of pork is on the way.
It’s worth noting that non-food prices and core CPI were low in August, and consumption resumed slow. On the production side, industrial production continued to improve in August, market demand continued to recover, and PPI rebounded for three consecutive months-the PPI decline rate in August narrowed by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, down 2%year-on-year. From the perspective of the industry, the upward trend of PPI is expected to continue, but due to the recent sharp drop in international oil prices, the trend of PPI may change.
How do you view the future price trends? There are opinions in the industry that as food prices gradually fall, CPI may return to a downward trend. However, it is relatively unlikely that the core CPI will continue to decline, and there will be no obvious deflation, and it will not bring risks to macro policies.
The increase in pork fell sharply by 33.1%, driving the CPI downward in August
The narrowing of the year-on-year increase in food prices is the main reason for the fall in CPI growth in August .
In August, food prices rose 11.2%year-on-year, a drop of 2 percentage points from the previous month. Affected the increase in CPI by about 2.33 percentage points. In food, the decline in the year-on-year increase in pork prices was the main reason for the decline in the year-on-year increase in food prices. Since the second half of last year, the year-on-year increase in pork prices continued to rise. Under the influence of the high base effect, pork prices rose by 52.6%in August, a sharp drop of 33.1 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 5.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The price increase of beef, mutton, chicken, duck and other meat all declined. While the increase in meat prices declined, the price of fresh vegetables was affected by the low prices of fresh vegetables in the same period last year, the floods in the south this year, the northern typhoon and other weather factors. In August, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 11.7%year-on-year, an increase of 3.8 from the previous month. percentage point.
From the perspective of non-food performance, non-food prices rose slightly by 0.1%year-on-year in August. The increase was 0.1%higher than the previous month. Excluding the impact of food and energy prices, the year-on-year increase in core CPI was the same as last month’s 0.5%, which is still the lowest level since data are available.
“Non-food prices and core CPI are low, and overall demand is still weak. After the epidemic Economic recovery mainly depends on the acceleration of production, the slow recovery of consumption, the demand is still weak, and the price level excluding food prices is in a state of low inflation.” said Tang Jianwei, chief researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center.
Li Qilin, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, holds a similar view.”At present, domestic production has returned to the level before the epidemic, but terminal demand, especially consumer demand, is still recovering, and the overall economy is oversupply.” Li Qilin believes that the core CPI is approaching or has reached a low point year-on-year with a high probability of continuing to fall sharply. smaller.
Compared with the slow recovery on the consumer side, in August, industrial production continued to Good, market demand continues to recover, and the prices of international bulk commodities such as crude oil, iron ore and non-ferrous metals continue to rise, driving domestic industrial product prices to continue to rise. From a month-on-month perspective, the PPI rose by 0.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. From a year-on-year perspective, PPI fell by 2.0%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.”This rebound momentum is expected to continue. However, due to the recent sharp drop in international oil prices, the PPI trend may change.” Tang Jianwei said.
Focus 1:The price of pork fell to four or five yuan a catty ?
Expert:”10 yuan a pound of pork is already on the road, it’s just a matter of time”
In August, pork supply improved, but demand continued to increase. In August, pork prices rose for three consecutive months, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2%, a decline of 9.1%; affected by rising feed costs, demand recovery and pork prices The prices of beef, mutton, chicken and duck have all risen to varying degrees due to factors such as rising prices, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%-1.4%.
From a year-on-year perspective, affected by the comparison base last year, pork prices rose 52.6%year-on-year, an increase A sharp drop of 33.1 percentage points from the previous month; beef and mutton prices rose 14.4%and 9.7%year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rates both fell; chicken and duck prices fell 1.6%and 0.9%year-on-year, the first drop in nearly three years.
With the recovery of pig production capacity and the recent drop in pork prices, some people think , The price of pork may fall to four or five yuan a catty. In this regard, Zhang Minggui, the new president of New Hope, stated that once the price of pigs falls below 20 yuan, or even slightly lower, it falls below most of the breeding cost line. Most of the companies and farmers that expand production will choose to wait and see or pay. Qing, it is impossible to continue to fall to the level of 4 to 5 yuan.
According to Hu Bingbing, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Technical factors such as feed costs and live pig breeding will increase the price of pork, which will indirectly drive the price of beef, mutton, poultry and eggs, but this increase is technical and phased. In the long run, with the gradual recovery of production capacity, pork prices will gradually fall back to a normal state, and the upward pressure on food prices will gradually improve.”But the drop to four or five yuan may be just a short-term individual phenomenon. As far as ordinary people’s lives, 10 yuan a catty of pork is already on the road, it is only a matter of time.”
Focus 2:How will prices trend in the future?
Expert:Pork’s impact on CPI weakened. CPI continued to drop year-on-year but there was no significant deflation during the year.
How do you view future price trends?
At present, the pork item is the most critical item in determining CPI. In Li Qilin’s view, the current The impact of pork on the CPI has begun to weaken, and this weakening trend will continue:On the one hand, the CPI pork item in September and October last year was as high as 19.7%and 20.1%month-on-month, respectively. The base effect will lower this year’s pork item year-on-year. . On the other hand, it is unlikely that pork prices will continue to rise sharply, and it can even be said that the possibility of a fall is higher.”Pork’s promotion of CPI has begun to weaken, and the year-on-year growth of other supplies and services may also be close to the top. In addition, PPI is difficult to transmit to CPI. It is certain that CPI will continue to fall during the year.” Li Qilin said.
Tang Jianwei also believes that as food prices gradually fall, CPI may return to a downward trend . From the perspective of the performance of food items, the impact of high temperature and rain on food price fluctuations after summer is weakened, and the prices of vegetables and fruits may drop significantly. Even if pork prices remain stable month-on-month, the continued high base will result in a narrower year-on-year increase in pork prices. Consumption recovery is relatively slow, and non-food prices may remain low. As oil prices rebound and industries such as tourism and accommodation resume, non-food prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly in the future.
“As the economy gradually recovers, non-food prices and core CPI have further dropped to negative It is unlikely that there will be obvious deflation and will not bring risks to macro policies. PPI is in the process of recovery. As special debt drives infrastructure investment to accelerate, and the global economy is gradually improving, the future PPI may increase year-on-year Back to the right.” Tang Jianwei judged.
Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Hou Runfang Editor Xu Chao Wang Jinyu Proofreading Li Shihui