The challenge we face is that tomorrow is beautiful, but to live past the dawn, we have to race against time.

——Huawei Rotating Chairman Guo Ping

Wen/Ba Jiuling

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Today (September 15), the US government’s The new ban came into effect, and the sword of Damocles finally fell.

More than a month ago, Ren Zhengfei said in a discussion with several universities:

Our company also wanted to make some contributions after entering the no-man’s land in return for the guidance of society to us, and also wanted to light up the 5G beacon, but as soon as the match was burned, the United States hit a big stick. We fainted. At first we thought that there was something wrong with our compliance system, and we were reflecting on it; as a result, the second, third, fourth…After the strike, we realized that some politicians in the United States wanted us to die. The desire to survive inspires us to find a way to save ourselves.

Faced with a ban that has no room for relaxation, Huawei is clearly prepared for the worst.

According to the industry insider”Mobile Chip Master” on its Weibo, Huawei Hisilicon All chips will be shipped back on chartered flights recently.

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This person also wrote on Weibo that “send a special plane to ship goods, it feels like a plot of war”, while Ren Zhengfei used the words “hope us to die” to describe it. One can imagine the new United States How harsh is the ban.

According to the CEO of Huawei Consumer Business Yu Chengdong, If it is not sanctioned by the United States, Huawei will Samsung’s global market share should be ahead of Samsung.

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Data source:research institution IDC

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In May 2019, the U.S. Department of Commerce included Huawei and 70 affiliated companies in the”Entity List”, stipulating that if there is no U.S. With government approval, Huawei will not be able to purchase components from American companies.

Yu Chengdong said that because of the ban, the shipment of Huawei mobile phones decreased by 60 million in 2019. Taiwan, the market share is behind Samsung.

Nevertheless, in the second quarter of 2020, Huawei still surpassed Samsung in the global smart phone market and won the championship for the first time. This is also the first time in 9 years that a manufacturer other than Samsung or Apple leads the global market.

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Data source:third-party research institution Canalys

Obviously, the United States is not satisfied with the effect of that ban. One year later, in May 2020, the United States upgraded the ban, which can be described as”extreme pressure.”

On August 17, the US Department of Commerce announced a new round of sanctions against Huawei. US Secretary of Commerce Ross said:The ban is to restrict Huawei’s access to US technology through third parties. Any use of American software or American-made equipment to produce products for Huawei is prohibited and requires a license.

In response to this ban, the minibus consulted Wang Yuan, assistant to the director of the Financial Technology Research Center of the Suning Institute of Financial Research. He believed that the US sanctions were a well-designed combination punch.”

The logic behind it is:If only the chip manufacturing link is sanctioned, Huawei can choose not to manufacture the chips by itself, but choose to only design the chip and then sell the design plan to a third party; if only the chip design is sanctioned, Huawei It is still possible to use EDA (Electronic Design Automation Software) in some form to circumvent. However, the new US ban restricts chip design and manufacturing at the same time, and restricts the circulation channels of chip manufacturing, which is extremely destructive.

To put it simply:Huawei’s mobile phone chips are designed and manufactured, if they contain”American genes”, they must be controlled.

Understanding this, we can also understand the current difficulties of Huawei.

At the 2020 Summit of the China Informatization Hundred Talents Conference on August 7, Huawei’s consumer business CEO Yu Chengdong said:We only did chip design, not chip manufacturing, so from September this year After the 15th, our flagship chip cannot be produced. Mate 40 mobile phones will be launched this fall, equipped with Kirin 9000 chips, may be the”out of print” of Huawei’s Kirin high-end chips.

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The Kirin chip will soon be out of print, which is worrying. Electronics industry analyst Guo Mingchi even predicted that whether Huawei can obtain mobile phone parts after September 15, Huawei’s competitiveness and market share in the mobile phone market will be negatively affected. The best scenario is that Huawei’s market share will decrease. strong>The worst scenario is that Huawei exits the mobile phone market, iPhone, OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi are expected to increase their market share in the long term.

Speaking of embarrassment, when Huawei is experiencing extreme suppression by the US government, it is an opportunity for friends, including Apple and Samsung, as well as major domestic mobile phone manufacturers. According to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, in the second half of the year, the overall sales of OPPO are expected to rise to 85 million-100 million units.

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“Maximum”It has arrived, and the new US ban has disrupted Huawei’s mobile phone business. In the 120 days since the US proposed the escalation ban in May this year to the official implementation of the new ban today, Huawei’s distributor channels have long sensed the crisis, some lamented, some stocked, and some switched businesses.

Minibus interviewed the distributors of Shenzhen Huaqiangbei Electronics Market and Hangzhou Bainaohui Market to see what they said about the Huawei mobile phone market.

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Now Huawei The price of mobile phones is really one a day, and the most price increase is the Huawei Mate 30 mobile phone. The price of the dealer channel is almost close to the official website price.

In the past, the profit of Huawei’s high-end phones was about 450-700 yuan/unit. Now the profit has fallen to about 300 yuan. The profit margin of channel operators is getting smaller and smaller, and the supply of goods is in short supply. We supply downstream mobile phone shops. Has also become a problem. Faced with this situation, some dealers want to stock up and take a gamble, and I’m also stepping up stock up.

But the situation of small merchants is more difficult. The profit compression of Huawei’s high-end machines and the shortage of supply have reduced its living space. At present, some high-end machines in small merchant stores are facing shortages. .

In addition, many small-scale dealers plan to switch to other brands of mobile phones such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo.

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The wholesale prices of Huawei mobile phones currently on the market have generally risen. For example, Huawei’s nova 7, Honor series increased by about 100-200 yuan; for example, Huawei P40 and Mate 30 increased by about 300-500 yuan.

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Hangzhou Bainaohui market Huawei mobile phone quotation

I can feel the panic of wholesalers in the face of the discontinuation of Huawei chips, and I am no exception. At present, the supply of goods in our shop is very tight. I really want to stock up small quantities, but Huawei has strict inventory control. Only when we sell a batch of goods can we replenish some goods accordingly.

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American How hard is the new ban on Huawei? How many chips may Huawei stock up now? Will Huawei really withdraw from the mobile phone market in the future? Next look at the analysis of the big head.

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Due to the United States Huawei is also actively purchasing and stockpiling chips and even semi-finished chips.

Buying semi-finished chips is because the US ban cannot be eternal. Huawei may expect to complete the production of these semi-finished chips in 3 months, 6 months, or even longer 8 months to replenish its chip inventory.

Because the chip supply is cut off, Huawei will adopt a”small water and long flow” production and sales method in the future, and will not follow the normal output in the past. Huawei will quantitatively allocate limited chip inventory to various models that will be on the market within a period of time.

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It’s like”I only have 10,000 yuan, but I have to rely on this money for a year.” It needs to be distributed reasonably to be guaranteed.

How many chips have Huawei stocked? This is also the Huawei trade secret that Americans most want to know. I predict that according to Moore’s Law that”the performance of the processor doubles every two years” in the industry, Huawei has at least 18 months of chip inventory.

With the current stocking situation, the Huawei Mate 40, which will be launched this fall, and the Huawei P50, which will be launched next year, will be launched as scheduled. However, these two phones will not maintain the previous 9-month sales cycle, and may be extended to 15 months.

From the current point of view, the scarcity is more expensive, and the price of Huawei mobile phones from dealer channels has risen accordingly. On the one hand, this has allowed Huawei’s mobile phone inventory to be digested, and these revenues have relatively made up for the operating losses caused by the inventory in Huawei’s mobile phone business.

On the other hand, the supply of chips is cut off and the output of mobile phones is reduced, which will reduce the scale of Huawei’s entire supply chain system. Regardless of the distributors, the supply chain, or Huawei’s sales and R&D teams, As far as I know, some people have left early.

Of course, the market has opened its doors, waiting to accept these sales, research and development elites from Huawei to the market.

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I think At present, Huawei’s self-rescue method is to rely on production lines without American technology to make chips and to purchase”de-Americanized” chips.

“De-Americanization” of chips means that all links of its birth are”de-Americanization” and realized by global technology. In this way, the US ban can be avoided. However, according to the unreasonable argument of the United States, strictly speaking, there is no chip that does not contain American technology.

If the US ban continues to be strictly enforced, Huawei may suspend sales of high-end phones. But I believe that Huawei’s research and development will not stop, and China’s entire industry chain is working together to tackle key problems, and the chip problem will be gradually resolved.

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Except chip With breakthroughs in mobile phones, Huawei also has a leading edge in mobile phone shooting, long battery life, operating systems, and mobile ecological services. Even if the sales of high-end machines are suspended in the future, Huawei will rely on a certain number of chips purchased in advance to develop in other areas.

Therefore, I think that”Huawei will withdraw from the mobile phone market in the future” is”unlikely.” The mobile phone business is already a major asset of Huawei. It is only possible to suspend part of it, but it will not withdraw.

In terms of sales, based on the current situation of Huawei, high-end phones equipped with Kirin 9000 chips should be able to sell for 3-6 months.

According to past data, Huawei Mate series mobile phones can sell about 20 million units per generation. The upcoming Mate 40 series mobile phones are expected to be hotter. If the production capacity can keep up, they may be sold out within 3 months.

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In the short term, this ban will damage the interests of US semiconductor manufacturers. These US manufacturers are bound to find other Chinese mobile phone manufacturers to make up for their losses in the Chinese market. Sadly, Huawei has been sanctioned and some businesses will temporarily suspend market operations, but other Chinese mobile phone manufacturers relying on the US supply chain have conquered the city and grabbed its market share.

From the perspective of the development of China’s semiconductor industry, this incident will certainly stimulate the development of the domestic semiconductor industry. According to an authoritative source, my country plans to include vigorous support for the development of the third-generation semiconductor industry into the”14th Five-Year Plan” that is under development. We strongly support the development of the third-generation semiconductor industry in various aspects such as development, financing, and application, with a view to achieving industry independence. (According to the Securities Times)

At present, Huawei HiSilicon has achieved some breakthroughs in the design of high-end chips, but the overall Chinese semiconductor industry still has obvious shortcomings in raw materials, EDA design software, manufacturing, and packaging. , There are too many links to make up lessons. It is hoped that China’s semiconductor industry chain can work together to tackle key problems and make up for shortcomings.

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Under the supply ban, even if Huawei currently stocks a large number of chips in the supply chain, it can only solve temporary needs. After all, chip products are rapidly iterating. After a period of time, over-reserved chips will fall behind, which is also undesirable for Huawei, which wants to promote mobile phone iteration and compete with friends.

Therefore, if the US ban continues, it will be difficult for Huawei to continue its glory in the 4G era in the field of 5G mobile phones.

In the future, the possibility of Huawei’s chip supply”renewal” still exists. Therefore, what Huawei has to do is still”on protracted war”, and use the cut-off of supply as an opportunity to catalyze the explosion of its own research and development capabilities.

In addition, Huawei is not a purely mobile phone manufacturer. Even if the supply is cut off, there is no need to worry too much. From another dimension, can be regarded as an”unconventional” incentive.

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Author| Li Mengqing| Interview| Deng Yiming | Duty Editor| He Mengfei

Responsible editor| He Mengfei | Chief Editor| Zheng Yuanmei