After 120 days of buffering, the darkest moment of Huawei has come:September 15th, issued by the United States on May 15th The escalation order for Huawei’s chip control has come into effect. TSMC has stopped producing Kirin chips for Huawei. Qualcomm, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will no longer supply chips to Huawei.

The latest news from a reporter from the Securities Times·e Company from Huawei’s industrial chain shows that Huawei currently does not have a plan B. In the future, Huawei may”restore dimensionality” from high-end mobile phones to cars, OLED screen drivers, etc. Software and mobile phone peripheral products fill holes, and the dealer told reporters:”Now it’s difficult to get the Huawei mobile phone unless Synchronously match products such as watches, bracelets, glasses, tablets, speakers, earphones, etc., and if you get the goods from the outside, the price will be several hundred to several thousand higher.”

However, just before night comes, On the afternoon of September 14, Huawei’s consumer business CEO Yu Chengdong still actively spoke:Mate40 will arrive as scheduled. Apple chose to hold an autumn new product launch conference on the second day of Huawei’s cut-off, that is, at 1 am on September 16.

Huawei is coming in the darkest hour

On May 15 this year, the United States further upgraded Huawei after it was included in the”Entity List” last year. The US Department of Commerce announced that it would strictly restrict Huawei. Using US technology and software to design and manufacture semiconductor chips to protect US national security, that is, to upgrade the chip control on Huawei.

Under such a ban, Huawei chip foundries such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. will work for Huawei. They will have to obtain a license from the United States. Of course, the United States has given a 120-day buffer period. During this period, companies such as TSMC can still continue to provide Huawei. The first Huawei chip supply cut-off date is September 15, 2020.

Now, September 15 has arrived, and the United States has not announced any further information about the extension, which means that Huawei’s chip supply has officially struck.

Prior to this, TSMC had stated at its second-quarter performance briefing that the company did not plan to continue to supply Huawei after September 14. Subsequently, Micron Technology, Samsung and SK Hynix all stated that they would not be able to ship to Huawei after September 14.

“Huawei can also buy chips from Samsung in South Korea, MTK in Taiwan, and Spreadtrum in China to produce mobile phones.” Huawei’s rotating chairman of Huawei’s 2019 financial report conference Xu Zhijun responded to Huawei’s restrictions.

But with August 17, the U.S. Department of Commerce further tightened restrictions on Huawei’s access to U.S. technology, and at the same time included Huawei’s 38 subsidiaries in 21 countries on the “Entity List”. The outsourcing chip program has also been restricted.

“Even if Huawei has made sacrifices because it has been unable to produce chips for a long time, I believe that many chip companies will grow up in China.” Xu Zhijun, the former rotation of Huawei, once said.

However, as we all know, in terms of high-end chips, such as 7nm and 5nm chips, Chinese companies are still unable to compete with major international manufacturers such as TSMC. Therefore, Huawei’s high-end mobile phones will inevitably be affected. Huawei’s consumer business CEO Yu Chengdong also said not long ago that the US ban on the supply of Huawei chips will take effect on September 15, when the Kirin flagship chip may become out of print.

After a round of attacks officially took effect, Huawei struck in the darkest moment.

Eco-partner:Huawei has no plan B

For chip supply, whether Huawei has a plan B has always been the focus of attention from all walks of life. However, on the afternoon of September 14, the Securities Times·e Company According to the information obtained by the reporter from Huawei’s partners, “Does Huawei have plan B for chip supply cutoff? According to the news from Huawei’s senior management, it is temporarily not available. The specific countermeasures should mainly be to seek domestic alternatives.”

However, a person familiar with Huawei’s industry chain and a semiconductor expert bluntly confessed to a reporter from the Securities Times·e Company that it is also difficult for Huawei chips to seek domestic substitution. On the one hand, high-end chips have technical bottlenecks and it is difficult to bypass American technology and equipment Restrictions, low-end chips can be used, but it means that Huawei will”reduced dimensionality” competition; on the other hand, Huawei’s consumer business CEO Yu Chengdong said that he has deep roots in the semiconductor industry, that is, to build a completely autonomous and controllable semiconductor industry chain, which is not accomplished overnight. It takes a long time, and it is not an industrial chain that can be created with money.

“Huawei is really’out of the way’ now, and it really can’t do the high-end. The follow-up can only reduce the dimensionality of cars or OLED drives, and develop other mobile peripheral products such as laptops and tablets.”In the eyes of this professional.

Previously, in August this year, there was news that Huawei intends to vigorously develop notebooks, tablets and other businesses in difficult times to deal with US chip restrictions.

Recently, a Huawei dealer also revealed to reporters that it has been difficult for Huawei mobile phones to get goods recently. The upper-level agents generally require that the lower-level agents place orders for Huawei mobile phones at the same time. Other smart products, such as watches, bracelets, glasses, tablets, stereos, earphones, etc., otherwise they will not be delivered. If Huawei phones are purchased from other external channels, the price will be hundreds to thousands of yuan higher than the channels in the system It varies, generally between 100 yuan and 300 yuan, high-end mobile phones such as Huawei’s tens of thousands of foldable screen phones may be thousands or even thousands of yuan higher.

It is worth mentioning that on the eve of the current Huawei chip supply cut, at the Huawei 2020 Developers Conference, Huawei announced a package of new software developments, including the release of Hongmeng 2.0, the new development of HMS, the release of EMUI11, and the release of Huawei next year. All mobile phones will support the Hongmeng system, etc., indicating that Huawei intends to make up for the hardware limitations by strengthening software, ecology, and systems, and change lanes to overtake to seize the development opportunities of the Internet of Things in the next decade.

The industry chain is looking for alternatives

As for the impact of chip supply interruption on the industry chain,”Huawei chip supply interruption will also have a certain impact on Huawei’s ecological partners”, afternoon of September 14 On the eve of Huawei’s chip supply cut-off, a reporter from the Securities Times·e Company learned from a senior executive of a long-term partner of Huawei.

The executive revealed that the company has been cooperating with Huawei for a long time, and the underlying chip used in the product has always been HiSilicon. Now the company is looking for new chip alternative channels to ensure the normal operation of the company’s business.

The situation is not isolated. Donghua Software recently said in a reply to investors’ questions and answers that Pengxiao’s localized server is an important part of the company’s business layout in the Xinchuang industry. Currently, the company’s integrated server product in cooperation with Huawei Kunpeng is the company’s first localized computing The product has already been promoted in the market. The company has established cooperation with chip manufacturers such as Huawei Kunpeng, Zhongke Loongson, Tianjin Feiteng in terms of localized processors (chips). With the continuous breakthrough of my country’s chip technology, more chip manufacturers will join the company’s Xinchuang industry ecology. From a short-term and mid- to long-term perspective, the company has a variety of solutions for localized processor chips to meet the existing market demand and the development of the company’s Pengxiao project.

Wuhan Fangu also admitted that the US restrictions on Huawei have had a negative impact on the company. The company stated that the U.S. government has included many Chinese companies and institutions on the”Entity List” under U.S. export control. If the U.S. government continues to expand the”Entity List” or strengthen the restrictions on the”Entity List”, it will impose restrictions on the company’s customers. The impact caused by suppliers and business partners will be transmitted through the industrial chain, and will also have potential adverse effects on the company’s production and operation and profitability.

Affected by the outage of chips, Huawei’s chips have been out of stock for a long time in recent years, which has also affected the output of Huawei’s mobile phones. In this regard, Huawei’s upstream glass cover and other component supplier Lens Technology stated that the company’s products are highly customized products and usually adopt a “production based on sales” production model. Therefore, the company can integrate the needs of major customers in advance and based on the production capacity. Make overall arrangements for a reasonable production capacity structure and production plan to maximize the use of the company’s production capacity and human resources.

Huawei and Apple competed to enlarge the move

It is interesting that on the afternoon of September 14th, on the eve of Huawei’s chip supply cut, Yu Chengdong posted a video on his personal Weibo. When asked when the next-generation Mate phone will be released, he said,”Please wait a moment, everything will arrive as scheduled.”

getUrls?link=5c9cf7fae607c72e0754d6735b196182 - The first day of Huawei's chip supply cut! Ecological partner:Huawei does not have a plan B; dealers:it is more difficult to get the goods

Previously, at the 2020 Summit of the China Information Technology Association, Yu Chengdong revealed that a new generation of Huawei Mate40 mobile phones will be released in September this year. , Equipped with the most advanced Huawei Kirin 5G chip. However, the Kirin series chips will no longer be produced after September, and Huawei Mate40 will become an”out of print” machine equipped with high-end Kirin chips.

In addition, at the just-concluded Huawei 2020 Developers Conference, Yu Chengdong said again:”No one can extinguish the stars.”

And Huawei’s biggest competitor, Apple, also chose On the second day after Huawei cut off the supply, the new product launch conference will be held at 1:00 am Beijing time on September 16.

On the evening of September 14, Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Guo issued a research report saying that taking into account the time of product mass production and shipment, it is predicted that the new product launch on September 15 will have a new iPad Air and New Apple Watch, no iPhone.

Guo Mingchi further revealed that the iPhone 12 series includes 5.4-inch iPhone 12, 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Max, 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro and 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max. Each model supports 5G and has 2 Two versions (Sub-6 GHz and mmWave+Sub-6 GHz). Sub-6 GHz versions of iPhone 12, iPhone 12 Max, iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max will be mass-produced and shipped in early October, mid-October, late October and late October, respectively. The mmWave+Sub-6 GHz version is later mass-produced and shipped than the Sub-6 GHz version.

In terms of configuration, Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the iPhone 12 series will not support the power-consuming 120Hz (display update frequency), and the battery capacity of the iPhone 12 series will be reduced. The power-consuming 5G function is already detrimental to the battery life. The electrical 120Hz will significantly reduce the user experience.

However, for investment, Ming-Chi Kuo does not expect Apple’s new product announcements to significantly boost the stock prices of most Apple suppliers.”We are looking at the long-term outlook of Apple and most of the suppliers, but investors are advised to pay attention to the following risks, including:new product demand, US presidential elections, Sino-US conflict and COVID-19.”