The real estate market is unpredictable. Various kinds of information are intricate and complicated. How will the real estate market evolve in the future?
Falling house prices are inevitable and unstoppable. The previous article explained in detail why house prices fall. Let’s analyze why the house price decline is unstoppable in a general direction.
- The international situation:(1) The world today is an integrated world, and no country can leave this collective. In recent years, the global economic development has been sluggish, and the growth rate has dropped from 2.2% to 1.30%, and the economic growth rate of many countries has dropped to a negative number; (2) The domestic new crown epidemic situation has basically been obtained Control, but the epidemic situation abroad is getting more and more severe, has caused the global economy to accelerate the recession, U.S. stocks plunged, European stocks plunged, global stock markets plummeted, crude oil and gold are also high, the global financial crisis is about to come, China is not To avoid being affected by the global economic recession, the future economic situation is not optimistic.
- Domestic situation:(1) At the policy level, the central government has clearly stated that housing will not be fired, no matter before or after the epidemic. Macroeconomic regulation and control have achieved initial results in recent years, housing prices have stabilized, and housing prices are not stable. Speculation will be the main body for a long time, and the house price is already lacking in soil; (2) the domestic economy is affected by the epidemic, it is difficult to recover in a short time, and the economic situation is also difficult; (3) the total number of our houses has been seriously saturated, which is enough Three to four billion people live; (4) Many people say that we are in the process of urbanization, so house prices will definitely rise. As everyone knows, our urbanization is also close to the standards of developed countries. About 70% of China ’s urbanization, according to relevant data, has reached 60%, and China ’s national conditions are special. Unlike capitalist countries, urbanization is also about to enter an inflection point and rely on urbanization to drive house prices up. It is already difficult.
Summary:The decline in house prices is irresistible, but do n’t worry too much. The main policy at this stage is to stabilize housing prices, and there will not be a big drop. Soft landing Is the theme of the future real estate industry.
The downward trend in house prices is inevitable, so how much is more appropriate?
- SOHO China’s founder Pan Shiyi once said that if house prices fall by more than 20%, most housing companies will no longer exist.
- Sun Hongbin of Sunac China also said that if house prices fall by more than 30%, all housing companies will fail.
Summary:House prices are too bad for the healthy development of the economy, and too low house prices will affect the development of the economy. Whether or not many people will recognize this, the real estate industry does The role of development cannot be ignored and is of great importance. If house prices really fall by more than 30%, it will have a great adverse impact on the economy, so it is not easy for house prices to fall by more than 20%.
Summary:House prices are down, but not big The situation of falling and plunging will definitely fall slowly, and the fall will not be too large. The best fall is within 15%. Of course, it will not appear in a short time.