If SARS in 2003 allowed China’s e-commerce to flourish, then the new crown pneumonia in 2020 will become an important turning point in the development of China’s e-commerce.

This time, the focus of transformation and upgrading may be on service improvement, and logistics is an important part of it.

Which upgrade of the service experience this time is led by Jingdong’s self-operated logistics? Or is the network effect of rookie logistics better?

01, Jingdong Logistics, the”crane tail”, finally turned over

March 2, 2020, JD.com released Q4 and full-year financial reports for 2019. According to the financial report, JD.com’s logistics and other services revenue in 2019 was 23.5 billion yuan, and its proportion in net service revenue increased significantly from 16.8% in 2017 and 27.0% in 2018 to 2019. 35.5% of the year.

Jingdong Logistics, which was once a”redundant”, finally began to show its power, especially during the epidemic, when other logistics efficiency dropped, Jingdong Logistics smoothly operated, and even some areas were able to reach the next day.

The rapid response of JD.com’s self-built logistics has been unanimously recognized by the society, and its performance in fighting against epidemics in Wuhan has also been affirmed by Academician Zhong Nanshan.

Jingdong may be the biggest beneficiary of new coronary pneumonia in 2020

Relying on the good effect of JD.com’s self-built logistics, it is expected that the net income in the first quarter of 2020 will increase by at least 10% compared with the same period in 2019.

JD.com’s self-built logistics, however, was not favored by the market. At the beginning of self-built logistics, Liu Qiangdong made a budget:it would cost 1 billion US dollars. When investors look at this number, they all cry. You did n’t even get 20 million US dollars. Now you say it will cost 1 billion US dollars.

In an interview with CCTV ’s “Dialogue” column, Jingdong investor Xu Xin mentioned that when he asked Liu Qiangdong why he wanted to do logistics, Liu Qiangdong replied:“75% of complaints against e-commerce They are all dissatisfied with the express delivery staff. This is a pain point in the industry.”

At the same time, the electronic products of JD.com were often stolen because of their expensive products during the express delivery process. Both JD.com and the express company have headaches.

So, Liu Qiangdong, who is”willing to be a sea slug dragon and not a Nanhe sword”, took out his domineering and started the creation of the Chinese version of”Amazon.”

02, China’s logistics disruptors are also pioneers

As an e-commerce company, its industry chain is roughly divided into upstream Supply chain system construction, intermediate platform construction, and downstream logistics services.

The supply chain construction determines the diversity of platform products, and its attractiveness to users is critical to platform construction. Downstream logistics services deal directly with users, and the experience given to users directly affects the retention of the platform. , Logistics services have become a key link in user word of mouth.

China’s e-commerce ten years ago, its logistics efficiency has seriously affected the user’s e-commerce shopping experience. A courier usually takes about a week to arrive, and the shopping is refreshing, waiting for the goods is too hard.

Jingdong may be the biggest beneficiary of new coronary pneumonia in 2020

During this epidemic, Weibo and the circle of friends were filled with complaints that”the speed of express delivery now seems to have returned to ten years ago, it is almost impossible to move the nest”.

The rise of Amazon is important because it vigorously builds logistics construction and provides users with the best logistics services.

Jingdong wants to imitate exactly this model of Amazon’s self-built warehousing logistics. With a US $ 1 billion investment, JD.com has begun to transform China’s logistics.

Jingdong may be the biggest beneficiary of new coronary pneumonia in 2020

In 2010, JD.com launched the”211 Time-Limited Delivery”, which means that users who place an order before 11 pm will receive the goods before 3 pm the next day; users place orders before 11 noon , You can receive the goods on the same day.

This change has evolved into a service benchmark for China’s e-commerce in the future.

Chinese e-commerce users buy things on the first day and can deliver them the next day, and their user experience has been greatly improved. During this period, JD.com has gradually established itself as an electricity company through the unique ace of logistics. An important part of the rise of business.

JD.com ’s self-built logistics model has always been a point of controversy.

03, it is a trump card and a drag

Self-built logistics can bring good logistics experience to users, but one of the biggest The problem is that it requires a lot of capital investment, and it is an absolute job of burning money.

In the book”The True Story of Alibaba”, the author Fang Xingdong quoted a conversation during a personal chat with Ma Yun, Ma Yun said:”Jingdong will become a tragedy in the future.” p>

Jingdong Logistics has a loss of more than 2.3 billion for the whole year of 2018, and it is the twelfth consecutive year of loss. If deducted internally, Jingdong Logistics lost more than 2.8 billion in 2018.

Even Liu Qiangdong himself said that if he continues to lose money this way,”JD.com’s financial integration will only lose two years.”

Jingdong may be the biggest beneficiary of new coronary pneumonia in 2020

Burning money to build logistics has brought JD’s reputation, but it has also become a dead end for JD. Not only that, but more importantly, JD.com’s external threats are now growing.

On May 28, 2013, Ali, SF, Santong and Yida (Shentong, Yuantong, Zhongtong, Yunda) and others jointly established”Cainiao Network Technology Co., Ltd.”. In the company’s equity structure, Tmall invested 2.15 billion, accounting for 43% of the shares; Yuantong, SF, Shentong, Yunda, and Zhongtong each invested 50 million, accounting for 1% of the shares.

At the same time, through strong capital operations, Ali bought the”Express Kingdom” and gradually filled his logistics shortcomings.

In 2007, invested in Best Express until it went public in 2017. Ali increased capital for six consecutive times, and the share of shares (Ali + rookie) has reached as high as 29%;

In 2015, Ali’s strategic investment in Yuantong;

In May 2018, Alibaba and Cainiao invested 1.38 billion US dollars in Zhongtong Express, holding about 10% of the shares;

On March 11, 2019, Alibaba will invest another 4.66 billion yuan into the controlling shareholder of Shentong Express.

 Jingdong may be the biggest beneficiary of the new crown pneumonia in 2020

Since then, in addition to Yunda,”Four Connects and One Up” have all been included in Ali’s rookie network. Ali’s own logistics empire has also been established since then.

At the 2018 Global Smart Logistics Summit, Ma Yun said that Alibaba will invest 100 billion yuan to build a national intelligent logistics backbone network. If hundreds of billions are not enough, invest hundreds of billions. Most of the investment is spent on this.

The national intelligent logistics backbone network will be composed of two parts:a domestic 24-hour network that must be reached along the “Belt and Road” and eWPT to achieve 72-hour freight worldwide.

Jingdong may be the biggest beneficiary of new coronary pneumonia in 2020

Jingdong has money, and Ali is richer than him. Self-built logistics is more time-consuming and labor-intensive than buying it quickly. The logistics service experience created by JD. The gap in logistics experience with JD.

Jingdong can reach the next day, Ali’s current business super can also do it, and other merchants on the platform can also reach within 2-3 days through”Four Connects and One Reach”.

Jingdong may be the biggest beneficiary of new coronary pneumonia in 2020

Ali gradually completes the shortest board of wooden barrels through capital operation. At the same time, compared to JD.com, Ali has its own”killer”, which is the combination of Aliyun’s data capabilities and Cainiao Network.

With the upgrading of logistics technology, big data, cloud computing, Internet of Things, blockchain, robotics, and unmanned vehicles have begun to be applied on a large scale in the logistics industry.

Alibaba Cloud, which has sharpened its sword in ten years, will become the backbone of the future rookie network. Through strong data capabilities, it will perform better integration and exert network effects.

The logistics system that JD.com has been building for ten years is now being eroded by Ali, and JD.com has to continue to increase its investment if it wants to further engage in long-term war.

Jingdong Logistics is shouting that it can no longer lose money, and at the same time, it has no way to consume it for a long time. For JD.com, it is a dilemma.

Author:Yang Jihong