A few days ago, at the 2020 International Investment Forum in Xiamen, the honorary dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University Lin Yifu published a title of” The keynote speech of”Global Economic Governance System under the New Situation” believes that the most important thing about global governance under the new situation is that developing countries must sum up the experience and lessons of success and failure, proceed from their own reality, and find a path for future development, and China has the responsibility Work with other developing countries to solve development problems and advance the improvement of the global governance system. The following is a record of the speech.
Dear everyone Leaders, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning everyone:
It’s a great honor to participate in the Xiamen Investment Fair again”Global governance system under the current situation” to talk about a few views. In 2020, that is, this year, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic began to spread globally in January, which has even demonstrated the changes in the world. We know that the global governance system is a system for coordinating countries in the world to deal with public affairs to meet global challenges. In the next report, I want to review the achievements of the global governance system formed after the Second World War, and what problems there are, and then talk about the main content and direction of the global governance reform.
After World War II, we learned from the experience of a greater world war that broke out 30 years after World War I. Therefore, after the war Global governance with the United Nations as its core has been formed. In the United Nations, all countries are equal, and agreements to deal with global issues are formed by voting, and the Bretton Woods system established under the United Nations, including the International Monetary Fund, helps Countries maintain macroeconomic stability, and the World Bank helps countries promote post-war reconstruction and the development of developing countries, and eliminate poverty. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which is now the World Trade Organization, promotes free trade and globalization. At the same time, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization was formed to help developing countries to promote industrialization; the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations to help developing countries realize agricultural modernization; the United Nations Health Organization to help countries prevent infectious diseases; and the United Nations Economic and Social Organization to help countries promote education modernization. After the Second World War, this global governance system was formed. One of the biggest contributions was to maintain world peace and stability for 75 years from the Second World War to the present. Of course there are wars and conflicts in some areas, but in retrospect, the 75 years from 1945 to 2020 should be said to be the most peaceful period in human history, and under such a global governance structure, East Asia includes the four Asian tigers. And mainland China has changed from the poorest place in the world to the place with the best economic development in the world. The four Asian dragons, including ours, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore, became newly industrialized economies in the 1960s, and now they have become high-income economies. China’s economic development has particularly attracted the attention of the world. Since the beginning of reform and opening up at the end of 1978, it has achieved an average annual high growth rate of 9.4%for 41 consecutive years. It can be said that in human history, there has not been any country or region with such a high growth rate for such a long time.
According to various predictions, this part of mainland China should be able to cross the threshold of US$12,700 per capita and become a high-income economy before 2025. The world’s population living in high-income countries will more than double from now only 16%of the world’s population to 34%.
But from the two hundred major developing economies after World War II, it appears that there are only two from low-income economies to high-income economies, one is Our Taiwan, one is South Korea. Of course, by 2025, mainland China will become the third one to move from low income to high income. In 1960, there were 101 middle-income economies in the world. When I joined the World Bank as a senior vice president and chief economist in 2008, only 13 had changed from middle-income to high-income. Among the 13 economies, 8 are European countries around Western Europe, such as Spain, Portugal, Greece, or oil-producing countries, and the other five are Japan and the four Asian dragons. So from such statistics, two In the world governance structure formed after World War II, countries in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa have been stuck in the low-income stage or the middle-income trap in the first place. At present, there are 1.3 billion people living under absolute poverty of US$1.9 a day in the world, and if the 800 million poor population reduced after China’s reform and opening up is not included, the world’s poor population has not only not decreased but is still increasing after 75 years. . The global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020 may make this problem worse. According to some studies, it is likely that 400 to 600 million people will return to poverty. On the one hand, since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, developed countries have been in a very weak growth trend. The income of ordinary residents has not increased, and the number of middle classes has been decreasing. Due to the uneven distribution of income, populism has emerged in developed countries; on the other hand, in developing countries, economic development is also facing difficulties. Under such circumstances, a wave of anti-globalization has emerged, especially as the United States continues to withdraw from various international organizations. There have been many cracks in the global governance formed after World War II, and everyone has a lot of confusion. Why are the economies of some countries and regions booming, but the vast majority are lackluster? We want to talk about the future development direction of the global governance system, or the focus of reform. We should first understand the reasons for success and failure before we can prescribe the right medicine.
According to the findings of a committee headed by a professor of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2008, after World War II, 13 economies have achieved annual 7%or higher, 25 years or more of rapid growth, we know that the normal growth rate in developing countries is 3 to 3.5%, which can greatly reduce the gap with developed countries, eliminate poverty, and achieve modernization. dream. According to the research of this committee, these 13 economies have several common characteristics. The first feature is that they are all open economies. As we often say in our country, it is to make full use of both domestic and international markets and two resources for development. The second is that these 13 economies have achieved macroeconomic stability, with high investment and high savings. They are all market economies or they are turning to market economies after 1978 or so in Mainland China. The last characteristic is that they all have an active and promising market. According to the new structural economic history that I have been advocating recently, these characteristics actually speak the same truth. These successful developing economies are based on what they have now and what they can do well, that is, based on their comparative advantages. , In the market economy, rely on the government’s active and promising factors to help enterprises to do what they can do and become stronger. Under this situation, they will of course open up the economy. If they fail to do well, I will import them. If they can do well, I will make them bigger and stronger, and then export them. Only in this way can we make full use of the domestic and international markets. Kind of resources. If you can do what you can do and become bigger and stronger, then the economy will be stable and there will be no crisis. If you can expand and strengthen what you can do well, the rate of return on investment must be very high, the enthusiasm for domestic savings and investment will be very high, and a lot of foreign investment can be attracted. This is under the original governance structure, if you know how to follow With this kind of thinking, it can develop very well, solve the poverty problem, and narrow the gap with developed countries.
After World War II, developing countries generally got rid of their colonial or semi-colonial status and began to take their own destiny. Their goal was to catch up with developed countries. It has what the developed countries have and imitates the development path of the developed countries. For example, in the 1950s and 1960s, developed countries had very advanced capital-intensive modern manufacturing industries, while developing countries generally had agriculture, resource industries, and light processing industries. Therefore, the governments of developing countries take the lead to develop modern industries that they do not have, and implement the so-called import substitution strategy. This goal is very lofty, but under that kind of development thinking, even if a modern industry can be established, it is very inefficient, so the economy stagnates and the poverty problem cannot be solved.
In the 1980s and 1990s, all developing countries were reforming and opening up. At that time, the view was that developed countries had a sound market economy system and developing countries Under the guidance of this kind of thinking, people generally want to establish a market economy system that is as perfect as developed countries, and want to eliminate government intervention at one time. However, the economies of the countries that pursue this kind of thinking have collapsed and crises continue. The successful East Asian economy is a special case. In the 1950s and 1960s, labor-intensive processing industries were developed, relying on advantageous exports to earn foreign exchange capital, and then gradually upgrading the industry. In the 1980s and 1990s, China, Vietnam, Cambodia and other countries with better transitions maintained stability through the implementation of gradual and dual-track policies. These successful economies have played the role of the”two hands” of the market and the government at the same time.
In retrospect, why did the global governance formed after World War II fail? I think the failure is mainly in thinking. Specifically, although these newly independent developing countries achieved political independence after World War II, there was a general idea of ”learning from the west” at that time. They believed that they learned the principles of developed countries to achieve development, and then they can”point to the world”.”.
How did these theories come about? The theory of developed countries has two sources. One is a summary of the experience of developed countries. For example, Adam Smith emphasized the”importance of the market” and the importance of having an invisible hand to allocate resources. This is a summary of the experience of Britain and Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries. But later he resorted to”the wealth of nations”. During the Great Depression in the 1930s, the laissez-faire market could not solve the problem of recovery from the Great Depression. This gave rise to Keynesianism Emphasizes the theory and ideas of government intervention, but any theory, whether it is a summary of past experience or the solution of current problems, must be based on the economic development level, society, economy, politics, and culture of the country that proposed the theory at that time. In developed countries, if this condition changes, the theory will also change. For example, after Adam Smith formed the idea of a free market economy, but in the 1930s, conditions became unsolvable by the free market, and Keynesianism emerged. Keynesianism appeared in stagflation in the 1950s and 1960s, and neoliberalism emerged. Therefore, although these theories in developed countries are very popular, the economic foundation, development level, social, political, and cultural conditions of developing countries are bound to be different from those of developed countries. The same, and these are the prerequisites for these theories to be applied, so if theories from developed countries are transferred to developing countries, the problems we often talk about will inevitably arise. We see that a few developing countries or economies have a common feature of emancipating the mind and seeking truth from facts. First look at what you have and what you can do well, then under the influence of the government and the market, do what you can do well and become stronger. This was the case for export-oriented policies in the 1950s and 1960s, and the same was true for the gradual dual track of China, Vietnam, and Cambodia in the 1980s and 1990s.
So in retrospect, the international governance system formed after the Second World War should say that its goal is noble, to maintain world peace, stability and development. Then the system is complete. It has the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the WTO, the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the United Nations Agricultural Development Organization, and UNESCO. To all aspects of international governance. I think the system is okay. The problem lies in the guiding ideas for the operation of the system. The current guiding ideas are basically based on the theories of developed countries and the experience of developed countries, and then developing countries consciously and unconsciously follow the theories and theories of developed countries. Thinking as policy as guiding ideology. And to succeed, it happened to be against the mainstream society at that time.
So if we discuss global governance in the new situation, I think the most important thing is that developing countries must summarize their own success and failure experience, and stand on their own The land has come up to face its own problems and come up with its own solutions. If this kind of thinking can be formed, the current global governance with the United Nations as its core is complete. So in this process of reflection, I think China is indispensable, because China is the fastest-growing country in the world. Now based on market exchange rates, China is the second largest economy, but starting from 2014, if calculated in terms of purchasing power parity, China is already The world’s largest economy, and since 2010, China has been the world’s largest trading country. The economy is the foundation. Therefore, China has the responsibility to sum up China’s own experience, to solve China’s own problems, and to work with other developing countries to summarize development. The problems of China’s own success and failure will work together to solve the problems of developing countries to complete our own development.
If the new crown pneumonia epidemic can bring us such reflections, then under the existing global governance, we will continue to discuss globalization, and each country has With the joint efforts of the government and the market, I believe that the global common prosperity pursued by the community with a shared future for mankind will inevitably be realized.