Ran Caijing (ID:rancaijing) Original
Author | Meng Yana
Editor | Wei Jia
The Internet enters the second half, the traffic dividend is fading, the e-commerce customer acquisition cost continues to rise, and the entire market is caught in the anxiety of traffic shortage. Short videos and live broadcasts have become a small amount of traffic dividends. In the past 2019, live-streaming e-commerce companies represented by Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya have become one of the most phenomenal new species.
Under the epidemic, in order to save themselves, traditional offline retail institutions have begun to try to transform online and move their products to online live streaming e-commerce platforms. Cargo boom.
The founding partner of Hehe Capital, Huo Zhongyan, believes that the live streaming method will become a monetization tool for more traffic entrances.”Now is the best time to enter the live broadcast e-commerce. The last time was 3 years ago.”Huo Zhongyan used a language stick to emphasize that traditional enterprises should not hesitate when exploring the business mode of live broadcast electricity.
On March 18th, Rancai held an online salon with a focus on live e-commerce. Former Taobao live broadcast operation director Zhao Yuanyuan and founding partner of Hejing Capital Huo Zhongyan carried out the theme. Share and talk with He Shulong, editor-in-chief of Ran Finance.
Hejing Capital is an investment institution focusing on large consumption areas. It has invested in Himalayas, One, Fan Deng, Fanyu, Shiheng, Qingke, Poison Tongdian. Projects such as food and kitchen are also investors in Li Jiaqi’s affiliate, ONE.
Here is Huo Zhongyan’s share:
Analysis of the” Benefit Law of the Epidemic Situation”in Four Situations
In this epidemic situation, the consumption that benefits the most Formats include fresh home, live/social e-commerce, online entertainment, and online education. These areas are in line with the”benefit law of epidemic”, that is, the industry with a short industrial chain and a light business form will benefit the most, and may break through the threshold to reach a new milestone. Whether the business form can benefit in the long term can be divided into the following four forms Conduct an inspection.
The first type is a false demand, or a business model in which the financial model is not established. These needs may be stimulated during the epidemic, but they will also diminish as the epidemic subsides. Previously, the fresh-to-home model based on node warehouses was controversial because the financial model was negative. However, under the influence of the epidemic, the order of fresh produce at home has increased many times, and the short-term benefits have been very large. Take Dingdong to buy vegetables as an example. It is said that local profits have been achieved in Shanghai. One is that the order density has increased significantly. The other is that the model has changed from delivery of food to door-to-door container pick-up. These two factors make the performance of customer orders significantly. decline. So after the epidemic, will the self-lifting mode continue? Can the order volume be stabilized? It also requires constant observation.
The second type is that the demand is true, but it is only a staged demand. The rise due to the epidemic situation will be affected by changes in infrastructure. For example, in the SARS period, there were many A-share listed companies in the SMS and SP industries. After 2013, China began to enter the 4G era. The mainstream interaction mode has become social tools such as WeChat. The SMS and MMS services and SP have gradually declined.
The third is to meet the real needs of the long-term trend, but because the infrastructure was not perfect when the epidemic broke out, the relevant formats have only achieved shallow benefits, such as during the SARS period. E-commerce industry.
Fourth, it meets the real needs of the long-term trend, and the infrastructure is relatively complete. The relevant formats have completed their rise and continue to benefit, such as the gaming industry.
Four-layer phenomenon analysis with content
The following is my analysis of the four levels and phenomena of live content.
The first level is fragmented content, such as news and short videos. In the early days, the scene of fragmented carry-on goods took place on TV shopping. After the rise of public accounts and short videos, public account e-commerce and live e-commerce appeared.
The second level is structured content, some of which can bring immersive experience, more complex and chapter-oriented content, such as books, movies, TV, games, exhibitions, Performances and scenic spots. Disney has established IP through shooting cartoons and TV shows, and relying on IP to bring goods is very strong. In addition, the Forbidden City Cultural and Creative, Western Art Museum, and museum gift shops are all typical structured content with goods.
The third level is related to the content of coordinated services, of which the standardized service type content is education and training. During the Spring Festival, an online education institution with US stocks learned from whom the market value was more than 10 billion US dollars. It completed customer acquisition through live lectures by famous teachers, and continuously guided students to continue high unit price courses to form a sales system. In addition, some consulting companies also acquire customers through short courses.
The fourth level is customized service content, and the representative form is consulting. For example, we usually go to the hospital to see a doctor. The doctor delivers medical consultation services, and the goods brought by the consultation consultation are medicines with higher unit prices.
Take apart Li Jiaqi’s live delivery logic
At present, Li Jiaqi has hundreds of millions of fans and millions of paying users on the entire network. At present, the entire company is gradually transforming Li Jiaqi’s personal capabilities into institutional capabilities. The upgrade from personal IP to the platform is roughly divided into three steps. The first step is lipstick and a brother. The second step is the online Costco that is currently being done, and member discounts. Channel brand, the third step is to set up your own beauty brand.
I will use the”three major seals” with content to define the user, get traffic and transaction conversion to disassemble Li Jiaqi’s play.
In the first link, the content defines the user. The content of Li Jiaqi’s live broadcast is beautiful makeup, which naturally attracts female users. In addition, his content is unique. Li Jiaqi has extraordinary talent in language. There are always golden sentences that can hit the user’s heart. The communication effect and the on-site experience are very good. The unique magic style establishes unique content attributes and gains a large number of fans. This is”fun”. In addition, it is”useful” through professional and low-priced product recommendations.
The second step is to get traffic capacity. Objectively speaking, this has a direct relationship with the early ONE company’s strategic partnership with Taobao Live Beauty. Li Jiaqi joined in the exploration period of Taobao’s live broadcast through Mei ONE, enjoyed the live broadcast bonus, coupled with the very fierce operation of Mei ONE, and quickly gained huge traffic. In 2018, the ONE company of the United States did a lipstick Guinness World Record certification for Li Jiaqi, and two events for lipstick sales in Double Eleven and”Ma Yun Dad” competition, which added a lot of labels to Li Jiaqi’s identity as an anchor, and also for The subsequent further acquisition of traffic laid a good foundation. In 2019, the company began to force platforms such as Douyin and Weibo, and all obtained extremely high off-site traffic.
The third step is to promote transaction conversion. On the one hand, it should be attributed to Li Jiaqi’s solid skills in offline L’Oreal counters as a shopping guide, and on the other hand, due to the strong platform capabilities of the US ONE company.
The US ONE platform has very strict selection standards and systems. For products listed in the live studio, the threshold must be the Tmall flagship store brand. The brand must first cooperate with the US ONE business. After negotiation, the product will be screened by Jiaqi and tested by myself before being put on the shelf. In addition, the US ONE platform has strong traffic operation capabilities. They have basically negotiated with major brands to obtain the lowest price on the entire network. The ability to control prices based on traffic operations and the quality of products based on supply chain management are the two magic weapons of the US ONE platform.
Now is the best time to enter a live e-commerce site
I don’t think that live e-commerce will be a flash in the pan, it will be a long-term pattern, and I suggest that all friends who are related to consumption should enter the market immediately. The best time to enter the live broadcast last time was in 2016. When Taobao just started the live broadcast, the next best time is now.
In fact, the essence of live e-commerce is very simple and simple:it is the product display and explanation of the goods on the spot when they sell. Whether it is a street vendor, a rural market, or an urban mall, this ancient form of selling goods has stood the test of many years. But today, we have live broadcast technology, the potential of the seller is greatly enlarged, the audience is expanded, and the efficiency of trading is greatly improved.
Because the geographical restrictions of traditional hawking have been broken, the head anchor of live e-commerce will definitely form a very concentrated situation, because a particularly good seller can pass live broadcast. Serve millions of buyers at the same time. But at the same time, I am also optimistic about the long tail. They are mainly distributed in the niche and subdivided categories, and live broadcasts that break away from geographical restrictions can collect alternative needs that were traditionally difficult to meet in the past and collect buyers in a large user pool nationwide. Once a fixed customer base is formed, Long Tail can also survive well.
At present, the Douyin and Xiaohongshu platforms are mainly responsible for planting grass, and the Taobao and Kuaishou platforms are mainly responsible for bringing goods. According to our understanding, the GMV of Taobao Live and Fast Hand reached 300 billion yuan in 2019, and we expect that it may double this year. Next, the live delivery method will become a monetization tool for more traffic entrances, such as other e-commerce platforms, social platforms, social e-commerce, community group purchases, etc.
Talk to Huo Zhongyan:
Thinking, determination and execution are the keys to the survival of entrepreneurs.
Ran Cai Finance:After In this outbreak, what specific suggestions would you give to investees in terms of cash flow, business model, organizational structure, and staffing? This epidemic is a huge test for entrepreneurs and teams. In the next 3-6 months, how do you think entrepreneurs should survive?
Huo Zhongyan :I think there are several aspects of the consensus, one is that cash flow comes first, it must be maintained for 6-12 months In addition, the organization must do a good job of weight loss and risk sharing, such as strictly guaranteeing cash flow by reducing wages.
Secondly, in terms of business model innovation, the formats that have been hit during the epidemic are essentially those with low delivery efficiency. Therefore, even if there is no blow from the epidemic, the organization must upgrade as soon as possible to accelerate online and offline business intelligence, which is itself a trend.
This epidemic is a test of the founder’s ability to turn and execute. The epidemic can break the original cognition of the founders, allow them to abandon the existing obscuration of cognition, return to the lowest level of thinking about business logic, seize the true value delivered to users, and change the format.
I think the three points of thinking change, determination and execution are the key soft powers for entrepreneurs to survive.
Everything can be broadcast live, and the live broadcast will become a monetization channel for major traffic platforms.
Lian Cai:Live broadcast has become an indispensable tool for many industries. During the epidemic, which industries or companies have you observed to integrate well with live broadcast? Case? Which traditional industries that have not been exposed to live broadcasting may welcome opportunities?
Huo Zhongyan :I think everything is live. There is no boundary in this field. If the live broadcast is not done well, it does not mean that the live broadcast will not work, but it may not have explored the specific form in the field that is most suitable for live broadcast.
For a long time, everyone may think that live broadcast is a B2C model, but I have observed that some B2B models have appeared on the live broadcast platform. Wholesale merchants sell directly in the live broadcast room. I was inspired by the downstream distributors. As mentioned earlier, the underlying logic of the live broadcast itself has not changed.
Ran Cai Finance:Do you agree with the view that”live broadcast will become the Internet’s hydropower coal”? Is it necessary for all walks of life to do live broadcasting?
Huo Zhongyan :I generally agree with this view that live streaming will become a monetization channel for major traffic platforms. In fact, it has happened in the field of live entertainment before. The most typical representative is Momo. Momo has found the export of live entertainment in the extremely painful stage of searching for a business model. At present, live entertainment has contributed to Momo’s main income and profits. Live e-commerce with cargo will also become one of the major new channels for monetization.
As of now, the highlight of many live broadcast e-commerce is price. The main scenario is new product promotion and inventory clearance, not the main sales channel. However, it may evolve into member retail in the future, focusing on selection and after-sales service, just like the little brother at the counter serving his regular customers. Because the live broadcast information output density and interaction depth are significantly larger than the graphics, the current state can be understood as the artillery as a supplementary arms with machine guns, but when the market competition is so cruel that only cannons can be shipped, cannons have the opportunity to become the main arms, at least Yes one.
The epidemic has helped investors to conduct screening, and they are optimistic about the empowerment of the industry chain in the future. >
Ran Cai:What areas of projects have you been focusing on in the past two months? During the epidemic, what items are particularly attractive to you? Will the investment direction or investment strategy be adjusted after this epidemic?
Huo Zhongyan :We will definitely not adjust our strategy because of the epidemic, because the epidemic only accelerates the overall trend of the evolution of the entire business format. Instead of reversing. Next, we will focus on projects enabled by the industry chain.
China is now in the era of the stock economy. As the overall growth demand becomes smaller and smaller, we find that more and more growth factors include zero-sum games. In the game of the stock economy, the services that can help the B-side enterprises to enhance their competitiveness from the IT system, supply chain, and traffic end will usher in new growth opportunities. We call it industrial chain empowerment, and there are institutions called It is an Internet industry, but the enabling model is not limited to this.
Ran Cai Finance:As an investment institution, what challenges does Whale Capital face in 2020? how to respond?
Huo Zhongyan :In the short term, because of the inconvenience of traveling, this epidemic has affected the rhythm of investment. In the medium term, I think 2020 will be a good betting year. Affected by the epidemic, the economic situation is declining, and some high-quality and long-term projects will slowly surface, which is equivalent to helping investors do a batch of screening. This year we will be active in VC.
* The title picture comes from Visual China.