Fitch, one of the three major international rating agencies, has recently adjusted its forecast for the economies of developing countries other than China this year.
In the first half of 2020, the global economy will fall by about 10%, and the forecast for the whole year will be reduced from 4.7%to 5.7%.
This is a bad signal, indicating that the pace of the world economic recovery is much slower than expected, and it is even continuing to deteriorate. According to the second quarter data, global GDP fell by 8.9%.
It is worth mentioning that one of the factors affecting the adjustment of the forecast is India. Fitch’s forecast for India has dropped sharply from a contraction of 5%to a contraction. 10.5%.
in the first half of the year, The economic performance of many countries is setting a record for the worst in history. For example, India, the United Kingdom and Spain have their GDP contracted by more than 20%.
India’s economic development prospects and deficit ratio have not only disappointed Fitch, the latestMoody’s also made a pessimistic warning.
It is currently estimated that India’s actual GDP will shrink by 11.5%this fiscal year, and India’s fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP will reach 12%in fiscal year 2020. India’s debt-to-GDP ratio will reach a peak of about 90%in fiscal 2020.
Moody’s reminded that India’s credit situation is increasingly being restricted by low growth, high debt burden and fragile financial system, and India’s economy and financial system are facing greater pressure It may further weaken its financial strength, and the sharp decline in India’s economic growth will result in a sharp drop in government revenue.
Although India has been working hard to reduce and control the risk aggravated by the epidemic, in fact, India’s special national conditions have made things worse.
According to the latest data released by the Indian Ministry of Health on September 11, India once again set a record for the largest increase in a single day, with 96,551 new cases in a single day and a total of 456 Million 2414 cases.