From the perspective of every individual investor, the stock market is a good thing, but of course it is important to retreat. In terms of trading strategy, of course, you have to get in the car. The timing of withdrawal depends on the degree of madness. For economic and financial stability, this kind of international value depression effect is inevitable, but it must be clear that the capital-driven market is infinitely harmful, and the 2015 stock market disaster is not far away. Predicting points is difficult and meaningless. However, it is foreseeable that this wave is the leeks of foreign investors. There are also official media who preached the bull market, and learned bitter lessons.
Bull market It is very likely that it is a bigger meat grinder. It is necessary to insist on selecting investment targets from a microscopic perspective and pay more attention to the fundamentals. The three positives really changed beliefs. The fundamentals, liquidity, valuation, and quality of listed companies that were previously judged were all left behind after the three positives. Is the bull market really that important? From the historical experience, as the paragraph said, the money earned by professional ability in the bear market is lost in the bull market. The bull market is likely to be a bigger meat grinder. Therefore, on the one hand, we have to see the changes in liquidity and the increase in capital going north, and at the same time, we must adhere to the original market judgment, the fundamental elements of the investment target, valuation, price, track, etc., with such judgments , No matter whether the bull market comes or not, it should remain unchanged. It is not that when the media says that the bull market is coming, many people encourage them, and even many people spread gossip and so-called inside information, they just rush in with no hesitation and enthusiasm. Therefore, the more at such times, the more you must keep your head calm and independent. Thinking, we still need to insist on selecting investment targets from the micro level and pay attention to the fundamentals of investment targets.
If the big bull market really comes, it is not recommended for novices to rush in. There is a more serious question. If the big bull market really comes, can you guarantee to maintain your strength and not buy stocks? I don’t think most people can do it. During this period of time, the stock market has continued to rise, and many people are unable to restrain themselves and are eager to try to rush in. For mature investors, this is understandable. From the perspective of trading strategy, of course, it is time to get in the car. However, for most novices who don’t know much about the stock market, I suggest that you still control your mood and stay on the sidelines. , Because the benefits you may get are much smaller than the risks. In fact, all kinds of investments, including stock market investors, are essentially the cultivation of human nature, and it can also be said to be very anti-human. If we say that in such a hot market, we can calm down and be serious. , From the beginning, there is at least one successful beginning. If you rush in, if you don’t know it, or even listen to a lot of so-called inside information and gossip, the probability of losing money is very high.
Ordinary investors should never increase leverage for stocks, the risk is extremely huge. The investment strategy of ordinary investors must not follow the institutional style, because the asset scale, risk control ability, professional level, etc. of the two are different, and their investment strategies must be different. The stock market still needs time to cultivate:system construction, revision of laws and regulations, strict supervision, cracking down on counterfeiting, implementation of registration system, de-administration, etc. And from international experience, most countries do not make much money in stocks when their economies are growing at a high speed; the stock market really makes money when the economic growth rate drops and the economic quality improves. It is recommended that ordinary investors, after clarifying the macro trend, spend their efforts to choose the track and find a good target, and do not rush to start when they hear that the bull market is coming. Most people cannot make money by investing. If you insist on investing on your own, you must diversify your investment, partly hand over to institutions, partly buy public funds, and part private funds. For retail investors whose investable assets are not large in scale, they really can’t help but want to go stock trading, and the capital loss of stock trading will not affect their lives, do not increase leverage. The risk of increasing leverage is extremely huge.
We must pay attention to changes in the global pattern. The current global industrial division of labor can be divided into three categories. The first category is the United States, consumer markets and financial markets are very developed; the second category is China and Southeast Asian countries, becoming global manufacturing bases; the third category is Russia, Australia and Middle East oil-producing countries, provide energy, minerals, food, and crops. Under the new”domestic and international dual cycle” pattern, the future may develop into a picture-a domestic regional reshuffle. For example, in the future, the role of Heilongjiang in the domestic economic structure may be particularly like that of Australia in the international structure, Shaanxi will be particularly like Saudi Arabia, and cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will be like the United States.
The term domestic and international dual cycles is very important, and it marks a major change in China’s new development pattern. In the past 40 years, China has basically followed the strategy of joining the international cycle of development. Great changes have taken place in the new formulation, with particular emphasis on meeting domestic demand as the starting point and end of development, with”domestic circulation” as the main body. There are two main reasons for this change:One is internal reasons. At present, we are in a critical period of economic structural change, optimization, and growth momentum. Especially due to the impact of the epidemic, the current economic downward pressure is very heavy. What needs to be emphasized is that the impact of the epidemic is long-term for us. The entire investment method, consumption method, and lifestyle will change. We must not take it lightly, and must coexist with the epidemic for a long time. The second is the changes at the international level. The world is currently undergoing unprecedented changes. Economic globalization is facing a countercurrent. Protectionism and unilateralism are prevailing in some countries. We must seek development in an uncertain world. This turning point may affect China’s development in the coming decades.
The dual cycle has four key words:unified market, launching domestic demand, digital economy, and industrial restructuring. Among them, the unified market is the foundation, the launch of domestic demand is the driving force, the digital economy is the improvement, and the industrial restructuring and regional reshuffle are the results. First, unify the market. If we want to start domestic demand, we are definitely going to take a round of measures to achieve unification of the domestic market than before joining the WTO. Although the domestic market is super-large, the potential, breadth, and depth of the market are worth exploring, but there are actually many barriers between regions, including a series of issues such as laws and regulations, supervision, transportation, logistics, and social security. Therefore, the establishment of a unified market is the basis for the formation of a new economic structure. Secondly, start domestic demand. The core of launching domestic demand is to deepen and implement the market-oriented reform of production factors, which includes land, capital, labor, technology, and big data. The core of starting domestic demand is to release the vitality of production factors. Only when the vitality of production factors is released can domestic demand rise. Now the start of domestic demand is facing a very big challenge. Whether it is the economic slowdown or the impact of the epidemic, it has caused a very important phenomenon-the actual income level has fallen, and even negative growth has occurred. At this time, it is very urgent to start domestic demand. Third, the digital economy. “New infrastructure” and the digital economy are upgrading and upgrading, that is, upgrading competition, changing lanes and overtaking. The digital economy is also an important infrastructure, the so-called”new infrastructure”, which every city cannot avoid. For every city, its main point is to seize opportunities and go ahead. It is better to be one step ahead. Beijing-Shanghai Line and Beijing-Guangzhou Line may have more opportunities than other cities. Leaders and entrepreneurs in some small and medium-sized cities may have to find ways to avoid the siphon effect. Fourth, industrial restructuring. Industry restructuring and regional layout will result in regional shuffling, just like the change in the relative status of cities caused by high-speed rail and the re-layout of the industrial chain. Both are the same. What will happen in the future? To be honest, I can hardly imagine it completely. Just like in the mid to late nineties, it is hard to imagine that the Internet will develop into its current state. But today I want to emphasize one point in particular. For some regions that were relatively backward in the past two decades, this is an excellent opportunity for upgrading competition and changing lanes for overtaking. The”new infrastructure” and the digital economy provide an opportunity to change lanes and overtake-if the car can’t catch up, change to a helicopter.
Four favorable factors for the promotion of”new infrastructure”. First of all, it is relatively friendly in terms of policy.Industry support policies continue to increase, from the central government to the various ministries and commissions to spare no effort to support. This is a good background. In the traditional debt-driven growth model of”Iron Public Foundation”, the elasticity of growth is getting smaller and smaller, that is, more and more debts are needed to obtain a certain GDP growth. Therefore, we urgently need to transform the growth momentum. Therefore, no effort should be spared at the policy or national support level. Second, the actual demand is relatively strong. Because”new infrastructure” is not only a short-term investment to stimulate domestic demand, it is actually an important measure to inject new momentum into the Chinese economy. At present, according to calculations by many institutions, the economic effect of”new infrastructure” has a very high rate of return on investment, especially the new technology infrastructure has a very obvious pull on GDP. Thirdly, the requirements to make up for shortcomings and benefit the people’s livelihood, especially in the”new infrastructure”, the construction of medical infrastructure is more important. After the epidemic, improving the public health system, enhancing emergency response capabilities, supplementing and upgrading medical equipment and medical information, all need to be improved. Fourth, our country is currently undergoing industrial upgrading and economic transformation,“new infrastructure” is very much in line with this direction.
There are two main ways to develop”new infrastructure”. One is”communication”, that is, the interconnection and intercommunication of information, which is equivalent to traditional infrastructure transportation. We see that many investment institutions have begun to deploy 5G base stations, terminals, and industrial Internet. For investment institutions, there is no problem with the track, but who can come out? This is what investment institutions have to consider. The second is”number”, which is the storage and processing of big data. In the financial industry, some new banks have been able to use big data to do a lot of things that traditional banks cannot do. Big data is everywhere. At this time, some places that were relatively backward are the beneficiaries of this trend. Because many developed regions are not suitable for building big data centers or base stations, some relatively backward regions can enjoy the dividends of this trend.
Improving the business environment should be cut from three dimensions:macro, meso, and micro. From a macro perspective, mainly involves governance issues, that is, the establishment of a modern economic system. From a meso-level perspective, mainly involves supervision and management issues. Although there is a phenomenon in the management of some industries, that is,”white paper and black words can’t be worth a phone call.” In addition, window guidance is also very common, and whether some window guidance is necessary is worth discussing. From a micro perspective, mainly involves service and cost issues. Take corporate services as an example. Many local governments attract investment from technology companies. However, due to the relatively long investment cycle of such companies, the cycle of transforming technology into products is relatively long. Over time, some local governments cannot accept this. Originally promised land or other companies that have large-scale taxation and quick tax collection. This type of problem is also something that needs to be faced to improve the business environment.