According to Ministry of Commerce monitoring
National Edible Agricultural Products Market
The wholesale price of pork has dropped for four consecutive weeks
As the price of”Second Brothers” slowed down, in August, the national consumer price (CPI) increased year-on-year and month-on-month. Experts analyze that as food prices gradually fall, CPI may return to a downward trend.
CPI year-on-year growth trend chart, from the National Bureau of Statistics
August CPI’s year-on-year growth rate dropped
Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics introduced on the 9th , CPI rose 2.4%year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points lower than last month. Among them, food prices rose by 11.2%, a drop of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by approximately 2.33 percentage points; non-food prices were unchanged from last month to an increase of 0.1%, affecting the CPI increase by approximately 0.04 percentage points.
“The narrowing of food prices is the main reason for the decline in CPI. Affected by the increase in the base figure last year, the increase in pork prices fell sharply by 33.1 percentage points year-on-year to 52.6%, which is due to food prices. The main reason for the narrowing increase. In addition, affected by the high temperature and rain, the price increase of fresh vegetables expanded, and the price decrease of fresh fruits and eggs narrowed.” Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, told a reporter from Chinanews.com.
“According to estimates, of the 2.4%year-on-year increase in CPI in August, the carry-over impact of last year’s price changes was approximately 2.1 percentage points, and the impact of the new price increase was approximately 0.3 Percentage points.” Dong Lijuan pointed out that from January to August, the national consumer prices rose by 3.5%over the same period last year.
Pork wholesale prices have fallen for four consecutive weeks
Pork price is an important factor affecting CPI increase, and it has been stable in CPI increase factors for many months In the”C position”. However, the increase in pork prices in August has narrowed.
From a year-on-year perspective, Dong Lijuan introduced that pork prices rose 52.6%year-on-year in August due to the impact of last year’s comparison base, and the increase rate dropped significantly by 33.1 percentage points from the previous month. 1.74 percentage points. From a month-on-month perspective, pork supply has improved, but demand continues to increase. Although the price still rose by 1.2%, the growth rate dropped by 9.1%.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the wholesale price of pork in the national edible agricultural product market has fallen for four consecutive weeks. Has the pork price entered a downward channel, or even returned to the”10 yuan era”?
“According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the stock of reproductive sows across the country has achieved a positive month-on-month increase for the first time in October 2019 and a positive year-on-year growth in June 2020 . Under the stimulus of sustained ultra-high profitability, the production capacity of live pigs will surely rise rapidly, and the downward trend of the cycle has been established and will continue until at least 2022.” Huaxi Securities analyst Zhou Sha believes.
According to media reports, Tao Yishan, chairman of Tang Renshen, said recently, “It has long been predicted that by 2022, domestic meat prices will fall to 10%. Block. I’m even more pessimistic. It is entirely possible that the price of meat will fall to 4-5 yuan.”
However, New Hope’s new president Zhang Minggui responded, The breeding cost of the pig industry in China has risen sharply. From the perspective of the whole industry, once the pig price drops below 20 yuan, or even a little lower, if it falls below most of the breeding cost line, most of the companies and farmers that expand production Will choose to wait and see or clear, it is impossible to continue to fall to the level of 4 to 5 yuan.
The price of chicken and duck meat over the past three years First drop
In August, among food prices, the price of livestock and meat rose by 42.0%year-on-year, which affected the increase in CPI by about 2.28 percentage points. Except for pork, “beef and mutton prices rose by 14.4%and 9.7%, respectively, and the rate of increase has fallen.” Dong Lijuan pointed out that the prices of chicken and duck fell by 1.6%and 0.9%, the first drop in nearly three years.
However, affected by factors such as rising feed costs, demand recovery, and rising pork prices, the prices of beef, mutton, chicken, and duck have all increased month-on-month to varying degrees. Between 0.5%and 1.4%.
The price of eggs has been frequently searched recently. In this regard, Dong Lijuan said that due to the low stock of laying hens and the low egg production rate in summer, coupled with the approach to school and Mid-Autumn Festival, demand increased more, egg prices rose 11.3%month-on-month, an increase of 7.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Non-food prices are compared for the first time since February Rise
In August, non-food prices rose from flat last month to 0.1%, the first time since February this year The increase affects the increase of CPI by about 0.09 percentage points.
Dong Lijuan pointed out that with the increase in summer travel, the prices of air tickets and hotel accommodation rose by 7.3%and 2.1%respectively; affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 0.9%respectively And 1.0%.
“Non-food prices are at a low level, and overall demand is still weak.” In Liu Xuezhi’s view, economic recovery after the epidemic mainly depends on accelerated production. Consumption repairs are slow, demand is still weak, and prices excluding food prices are in a low inflation state.
CPI increase may continue to fall in the future
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from August 31st to September 6th, the prices of meat and poultry products steadily declined, while the prices of aquatic products fell slightly. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits dropped by 0.3%, and the average wholesale price of only 30 kinds of vegetables increased by 0.6%.
“With the gradual fall of food prices, CPI may return to a downward trend.” Liu Xuezhi said that after the summer, the impact of high temperature and rain on food price fluctuations weakened, vegetables, The prices of fruits etc. may drop significantly. Even if pork prices remain stable month-on-month, the continued high base will result in a narrower year-on-year increase in pork prices.
“Consumption recovery is relatively slow, and non-food prices may remain low. As oil prices rebound, tourism, accommodation and other industries continue to recover, and non-food prices are expected to gradually stabilize in the future A slight increase.” Liu Xuezhi said.
Because prices are at a low level, some people are worried that there will be a risk of deflation. In this regard, Liu Xuezhi pointed out that although the fall in food prices may lead to lower CPI and non-food prices at a low level, with the gradual recovery of the economy, it is less likely that non-food prices and core CPI will fall further to negative values and will not appear. Obvious deflationary situation.
Source:China News Network (Author:Xie Yi concept)
Shenyang Daily New Media Center (Shenyang Net) Editor:Dong Junzi