getUrls?link=0af4f8002a3a9bb3015af39437d2bb06 - Drop for four weeks! Pork prices may fall below 10 yuan?

Monitored by the Ministry of Commerce

National Edible Agricultural Products Market

Pork wholesale prices have dropped for four consecutive weeks

As the price of”Second Brothers” slowed down, in August, the nationwide consumer price (CPI) increased year-on-year and month-on-month. Experts analyze that as food prices gradually fall, CPI may return to a downward trend.

getUrls?link=25d26df21fda6126bd90fbdac75fdd7c - Drop for four weeks! Pork prices may fall below 10 yuan?

CPI year-on-year growth trend chart, from the National Bureau of Statistics

In August, the year-on-year increase of CPI fell back

Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced on the 9th that CPI rose 2.4%year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 11.2%, a drop of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 2.33 percentage points; non-food prices changed from flat last month to an increase of 0.1%, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.04 percentage points.

“The narrowing of food price growth was the main reason for the decline in CPI. Affected by the increase in the base figure last year, the year-on-year increase in pork prices fell sharply by 33.1 percentage points to 52.6%, which was the main reason for the narrowing of food prices. , Affected by the high temperature and rain, the price increase of fresh vegetables expanded, and the price decrease of fresh fruits and eggs narrowed.” Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, told a reporter from Chinanews.com.

“According to estimates, of the 2.4%year-on-year increase in CPI in August, the carry-over impact of last year’s price changes was approximately 2.1 percentage points, and the impact of the new price increase was approximately 0.3 percentage points.” Dong Lijuan pointed out, From January to August, national consumer prices rose by 3.5%over the same period last year.

Pork wholesale prices have fallen for four consecutive weeks.

Pork prices are an important factor affecting the increase in CPI. They have been in the”C” position in the CPI increase for many months. However, the increase in pork prices in August has narrowed.

Dong Lijuan introduced that from a year-on-year perspective, affected by the comparison base last year, pork prices in August rose 52.6%year-on-year, a sharp drop of 33.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 1.74 percentage points. From a month-on-month perspective, pork supply has improved, but demand continues to increase. Although the price still rose by 1.2%, the growth rate dropped by 9.1%.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the wholesale price of pork in the national edible agricultural product market has fallen for four consecutive weeks. Has the pork price entered a downward channel, or even returned to the”10 yuan era”?

“According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the stock of reproductive sows across the country has achieved a positive month-on-month increase in October 2019 for the first time, and a positive year-on-year growth in June 2020. Continued ultra-high profit stimulus Under the circumstances, the production capacity of live pigs will surely rise rapidly, and the downward cycle of the cycle has been established and will continue until at least 2022.” Huaxi Securities analyst Zhou Sha believes.

According to media reports, Tao Yishan, Chairman of Tang Renshen, said recently, “It has long been predicted that by 2022, domestic meat prices will fall to 10 yuan. Even more pessimistic, it is entirely possible that the price of meat will fall to RMB 4-5 by then.”

However, Zhang Minggui, the new president of New Hope, responded that the cost of breeding in China’s pig industry has risen sharply. Once the pig price falls below 20 yuan, or even a little lower, and falls below most of the breeding cost line, most of the companies and farmers that expand production will choose to wait and see or clear it, and it is impossible to continue to fall to 4 Yuan to 5 Yuan level.

The year-on-year price of chicken and duck meat dropped for the first time in nearly three years

In August, food prices Among them, the price of livestock meat increased by 42.0%year-on-year, affecting the CPI increase by about 2.28 percentage points. Except for pork, “beef and mutton prices rose by 14.4%and 9.7%, respectively, and the growth rates have fallen.” Dong Lijuan pointed out that the prices of chicken and duck fell by 1.6%and 0.9%, the first drop in nearly three years.

However, affected by factors such as rising feed costs, demand recovery, and rising pork prices, the prices of beef, mutton, chicken, and duck have all increased month-on-month, ranging from 0.5%to 1.4%. .

Recently, egg prices have been frequently searched. In this regard, Dong Lijuan said that due to the low level of the stock of layer hens, the low egg production rate in summer, and the close to school and Mid-Autumn Festival, demand increased more, egg prices rose 11.3%month-on-month, an increase of 7.3 percentage points from the previous month.

Non-food prices rose for the first time since February

In August, non-food prices The change from flat last month to an increase of 0.1%was the first increase since February this year, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.09 percentage points.

Dong Lijuan pointed out that with the increase in summer travel, the prices of air tickets and hotel accommodation rose by 7.3%and 2.1%respectively; affected by fluctuations in international crude oil prices, gasoline and diesel prices rose by 0.9%and 1.0%, respectively.

“Non-food prices are at a low level, and overall demand is still weak.” In Liu Xuezhi’s view, economic recovery after the epidemic mainly depends on accelerated production. Consumption repairs are slow, demand is still weak, and prices excluding food prices are in a low inflation state.

Future CPI increase may continue to fall

According to the Ministry of Commerce, August 31 As of September 6, the prices of meat and poultry products have fallen steadily, and the prices of aquatic products have fallen slightly. The average wholesale prices of 6 kinds of fruits have dropped by 0.3%, and the average wholesale prices of only 30 kinds of vegetables have increased by 0.6%.

“With the gradual fall of food prices, CPI may return to a downward trend.” Liu Xuezhi said that after the summer, the impact of high temperature and rain on food price fluctuations will weaken, and the prices of vegetables and fruits may fall significantly. Even if pork prices remain stable month-on-month, the continued high base will result in a narrower year-on-year increase in pork prices.

“Consumption recovery is relatively slow, and non-food prices may still remain low. With the recovery of oil prices, tourism, accommodation and other industries continue to recover, non-food prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly in the future.” Liu Xuezhi said.

As prices are at a relatively low level, some people worry that there will be a risk of deflation. In this regard, Liu Xuezhi pointed out that although the fall in food prices may lead to lower CPI and non-food prices at a low level, with the gradual recovery of the economy, it is less likely that non-food prices and core CPI will fall further to negative values ​​and will not appear. Obvious deflationary situation.

Source:China News Network (Author:Xie Yi concept)

Editor:Chen seeds early Editor:Yan Jiwei Gao Wei

Production:Shenyang Daily New Media Center (Shenyang Net)

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