Recently, many domestic raw materials have started price increases. On September 9, Propylene oxide (PO) Shandong region quoted 15,100 yuan/ton, refreshed from 2015 The highest point since the beginning of the year, as of September 8, the ex-factory cash price in Shandong reached 14,200-14,400 yuan/ton, which was 6,400 yuan/ton, the lowest point this year, and a cumulative increase of 7,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 121.88%over the entire span The trend is also unprecedented.
It is understood that the pressure of the epidemic this year and the surge in international crude oil caused by the OPEC production reduction agreement have caused a continuous and long-term impact on many raw materials in the chemical industry. The silence in the first half of the year and the second half of the year The rapid rise of the chemical industry has left many chemical people confused. At present, the price that has gone through several rounds of rise and fall has risen or fallen compared to the same period in previous years, and whether the price changes under the epidemic have affected chemical companies. What about normal production operations?
In fact, among 87 important raw materials, 15 have seen year-on-year data increases, accounting for 17.24%.
The year-on-year increase list of some raw materials in 2020
For example, epoxy resin which is very hot this year, despite the emergence of Suspension of production restrictions, suspension of auto maintenance, unqualified sewage and flood disasters have had a major impact on 60%of domestic epoxy resins, and epoxy resins have also risen several timesquotationsEven stopping sales and reluctantly selling, triggered a panic and panic in the market, but compared with the same period last year, the prices were basically the same. In mid-October last year, the price of epoxy resin soared to 24,000 yuan/ton, close to the highest level in history, and was affected by The supply of propane is tight, and there is a limited supply.
The titanium dioxide on the cusp of recent waves is also a key case. Since September, many titanium dioxide companies have sent letters to increase prices, and some companies have kicked off the prelude to the fifth round of the year and the third round of the second half. The quotes of some companies have reached 14,000 yuan/ton, which is an increase of nearly 2,000 yuan/ton from around 12,200 yuan/ton in July. However, compared with the same period last year, there is actually not such an astonishing increase on the surface. After all, in the first half of the year, titanium dioxide companies encountered an export crisis. The price of Rutile type 14900-16300 yuan/ton, anatase type 12300-14000 yuan/ton plummeted, price plummeted nearly 4000 yuan/ton, The price of rutile type is 12000-14500 yuan/ton, and the price of anatase is 10300-11800 yuan/ton. From this point of view, the current high price is only a restoration of the normal price at the beginning of the year, which is a process of”self-repair”.
In addition, this year, there have been larger increases in cyclohexanone, phenol, epoxy Chloropropane, etc. is also basically affected by the price of crude oil, and there have been large fluctuations, but the year-on-year data has shown a certain decline, butadiene, mixedXylene and toluene the year-on-year decline data of these three raw materials were 45.34%, 44.85%, 44.05%, and almost reached 50%. This can also clearly show that this year’s ultra-high increase in raw materials does not mean that the price of chemicals can reach or exceed the total ratio.
Some chemical companies said that the situation this year is really difficult to predict. After the resumption of work, basically looking at the changes in the situation, they have begun to stock up. However, after the first half of the year, some large and medium-sized enterprises and more competitive enterprises have achieved excellent performance of year-on-year sales increase, and the growth rate is between 30%-50%. The situation and performance of the factory have basically stabilized around August, and the”golden nine silver ten” work has been completed. Some companies even seized the opportunity to stock up on raw materials when the price of raw materials was low, and then sell them at a price difference. Not only did they lose money, they also increased their income.
Industry insiders said that the peak sales season of”Golden Nine and Silver Ten” over the years will basically be a peak period for price increases, which will sweep away the previous haze and market downturn. That is to say, although the situation under the epidemic this year appears to be very special, a vertical comparison with the data of the same period last year shows that less raw materials have increased, and a large proportion of chemical products have remained flat or declining. This also confirms the saying in the industry that “price increases without demand are empty talk”. At present, the downstream demand has not really fully”recovered”, and the price increase is largely a speculation of the artificial”control of sales” of upstream costs.