China Xiaokang Net, September 15th, Lao Ma For this Chinese technology giant, this day is undoubtedly a dark day. Huawei’s products, from mobile phones, 5G base stations, to servers, and even various IoT devices, all rely on chips. For a hardware-based technology company, without chips, there will be no products, and without products, the company will no longer exist.
Huawei company logo
The British Broadcasting Corporation reported that it is worth mentioning that Huawei was established for more than 30 years. In the second quarter of this year, smartphone shipments surpassed Samsung, making it the world’s highest sales volume for the first time. However, immediately after the third quarter, it faced a complete”core break”. The throne is not yet warm, and may be forced to give way for the first time.
After September 15th, it is a brand new period for Huawei, and China’s chip industry has to face potentially huge changes.
With an order from the US government, it is not surprising that local US companies stop supplying Huawei. Why do semiconductor companies in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have to comply?
In simple terms, there are two reasons:China does not have independent chip design and manufacturing capabilities, and American technology has an irreplaceable position in the global chip industry.
Take Huawei’s most advanced Kirin 9000 chip as an example. From scratch, a chip must undergo design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing.
In the lowest-tech packaging and testing process, local Chinese companies can meet Huawei’s needs.
In the design process, although the Kirin 9000 is independently designed by Huawei HiSilicon, the EDA software necessary for the design process. In this field, the three giants Cadence, Synopsys and Mentor Graphics are in a monopoly position. Not a US company.
The American Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) have successively issued statements hoping that the ban will be postponed and emphasized that the ban will harm the interests of the industry.
In a statement, the International Semiconductor Industry Association stated that the new US law on August 17 will eventually harm the US semiconductor industry and cause huge uncertainty and destruction in the semiconductor supply chain, thereby ultimately destroying American national security interests.
When the Huawei ban was promulgated in May, the International Semiconductor Industry Association stated that the ban would inhibit the willingness of companies to buy equipment and software made in the United States, and at the same time cause companies not related to Huawei to have lost nearly $17 million. . And in the long run,”in addition to eroding the existing customer base of American products, it also exacerbates the mistrust of companies in the supply of American technology and encourages other companies to strive to replace American technology.”
Analysis by Gartner, an analysis agency, shows that in 2019, Huawei’s global semiconductor procurement expenditure reached 20.8 billion US dollars, ranking third in the world. This means that under the ban, the total semiconductor industry Revenue may be reduced by about US$20 billion.
But it is undeniable that Huawei, as one of the few companies in China that masters core technologies in key areas, will become a long-term goal of the United States, and the two parties in the United States have reached a consensus and are holding a negative posture in the face of the rise of China .
U.S. Attorney General William Barr said in a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in February this year that the United States has been a world leader in innovation and technology since the 19th century. status. It is the technological strength of the United States that makes it prosperous and safe. Currently, 5G technology is at the center of the emerging technology and industrial world. If China continues to lead in the 5G field, they will be able to lead a series of opportunities brought about by emerging technologies that rely on and are intertwined with 5G platforms. And China’s lead will make the United States lose the power of sanctions.
So it is necessary to destroy China’s leading position in the 5G field. He even suggested that the United States and its allies should consider directly investing heavily in Nokia and Ericsson to counter Huawei.
Faced with the gloomy prospect of”coreless usable”, Huawei does not seem to plan to exit the smartphone industry directly.
Huawei’s rotating chairman Guo Ping also stated on September 2 that the direct product rules added on May 15 this year should have added some difficulties to Huawei, but it is not insurmountable. Essentially, it is a process problem, a cost problem, and a time problem.
“The challenge we face is that tomorrow is beautiful, but we have to live past the dawn, right? A race against time.”
The Chinese chip industry faces two realities:one is The global chip industry is facing bottlenecks, which brings opportunities for latecomers to catch up. Second, China’s current chip industry base is extremely poor.
The bottleneck of the chip industry comes from the failure of Moore’s Law. In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore proposed that the number of components that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit would double every 18 to 24 months, and the performance would also double. For nearly half a century since then, the semiconductor industry has roughly rushed forward in accordance with this model. With the rapid iteration rate of each generation, it is almost impossible for latecomers to catch up with this development speed.
However, this speed is gradually slowing down. In the past 10 years, the growth rate of the semiconductor industry has remained between 4%and 6%, and it is still slowing down. When the chip manufacturing process develops to 28nm (nanometer) and below, the cost-effectiveness of the process has dropped sharply, and the chip industry is no longer a pure”technical championship”. Through the substantial progress in technology, the use of general-purpose chips to occupy the market, but needs to target the Internet of Things Develop dedicated chips for fragmented scenarios. This brings opportunities for latecomers to catch up.
Yu Chengdong called on, “In terms of semiconductor manufacturing, we must make breakthroughs including EDA design, materials, manufacturing, process, design capabilities, manufacturing, packaging, packaging and testing, etc. At the same time, in the smart semiconductor Second-generation semiconductors have entered the era of third-generation semiconductors, and we hope to lead in a new era.”
In addition to betting heavily on the chip industry, China is also targeting Taiwan’s relatively developed chip industry. According to Taiwanese media”Business Weekly”, mainland Chinese companies have poached more than 3,000 semiconductor engineers from Taiwan. Some analysts said that this number accounts for about one-tenth of the total number of engineers engaged in semiconductor research and development in Taiwan.
SMIC, Tsinghua Unigroup and other Chinese companies, and also recruited Jiang Shangyi, Liang Mengsong, from TSMC and other industry giants. Span class=”entity-word” data-gid=”4112908″>Gao Qiquan and other experts serve as executives.